It’s finally election day! Over 40 million Americans have already voted, thanks to early voting opportunities across the country, which should be over a third of the votes cast in this election.
Some basics…
To win the election, Trump or Clinton needs at least 270 electoral votes. There are 538 electoral votes in total. Each state gets as many “electors” as they have members of Congress. This corresponds to 435 members of the House + 100 Senators + 3 electors for the District of Columbia = 538 electoral college votes.
Here are the core swing states: Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, and Nevada. Other states like New Hampshire, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Michigan and one lonely electoral vote in Maine could plausibly be up for grabs.
The earliest indicator of the night will be New Hampshire. It’s small but mighty with only four electoral college votes. However, If Trump wins there then he’s likely surged enough to win the whole thing. And if Hillary wins New Hampshire then it becomes much more difficult for Trump to win without a massive upset in the midwest (Wisconsin and Michigan are considered reliably democratic) or by winning Pennsylvania.
The two other East Coast states that might call the election are North Carolina and Florida. If Hillary wins either of those states then it’s basically over for Trump.
Control of the Senate is also crucial tonight. There are 34 seats up for reelection; Democrats need to win 15 of those 34 seats to claim the majority and Republicans need to win 21. Keep an eye on Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina, which are especially close.
To track what’s happening in the polls across the country here are some sites you might want to hit refresh on tonight.
The New York Times is providing unlimited access to all New York Times digital platforms through Wednesday so you can keep up with the election via the Times.
Get accurate voter data from 270 To Win.
Get Nate Silver (and Co’s) take at 538.