Month: October 2024

Close Battles in the House

The remaining three congressional races in Washington State are hotly contested. Two of the races feature embattled Democratic incumbents hoping to fend off Republican challengers. In the 8^th congressional district, representing parts of Snohomish, King, Pierce, Chelan, and Kittitas counties, Rep. Kim Schrier is seeking a fourth term in office. Schrier became the first Democrat to represent the district when she won a surprise victory to succeed outgoing congressman Dave Reichert in 2018. Schrier is running against Carmen Goers, a commercial banker who has lived in the district for over 20 years. Schrier has raised $6,048,691 as of October 16, as opposed to the $244,558 raised by Goers. Though the makeup of the district ensures a close race, Schrier is nonetheless favored to win.

In the 3^rd congressional district, encompassing most of southwest Washington, surprise 2022 victor Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (MGP) is facing off against Republican nominee Joe Kent in a rematch of last cycle’s contest. MGP succeeded 12-year incumbent and current Lands Commissioner candidate Jamie Herrera Butler, who came in 3^rd in the nonpartisan primary, before defeating Kent in the general election in what the Seattle Times called “the most stunning political upset in the country.”

MGP has earned a reputation as a moderate Democrat during her first term in office, largely voting in line with her party on issues such as abortion and infrastructure, but also grabbing headlines for sparring with mainstream Democrats on issues such as gun rights and student debt.

Kent, who is once again running against MGP, entered national politics in 2022 when he challenged incumbent Herrera Butler for her seat, citing her vote to impeach former President Donald Trump as his reason for joining the fray. Kent is a former Army Special Forces Officer who has been endorsed by Donald Trump and other members of the GOP’s right flank, including Michael Flynn and Matt Gaetz. Kent has continuously cast doubt on the results of the 2020 presidential election and voiced his belief that the January 6^th riots may have been an intelligence operation by the government.

With just over a week to go before the election, the candidates appear once again to be in a dead heat. In the most recent poll, conducted by The Northwest Progressive Institute, both candidates polled at 46%, with the remaining 8% reporting that they were still undecided. To be reelected in this Republican-leaning district, MGP will need to not only shore up Democratic support but also appeal to Trump voters who might be willing to split their ticket. In the same poll, 37% of voters reported approving of her record in Congress, with 34% disapproving and 29% unsure.  Kent, on the other hand, is seeking to excite the district’s Republican base in order to flip the seat. He was recently visited by Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, who made a number of campaign stops with Kent in a display of GOP support that Kent notably lacked in his previous bid. As of October 16, Kent had raised just over $2 million, far less than the staggering $10 million brought in by MGP. Despite the fundraising differences, the race, which was decided by just 2,629 votes out of 319,759 cast last cycle, is expected to be one of the closest in the nation.

The race in the 4^th congressional district is tightly contested as well, although this race is between two Republicans. Dan Newhouse, a farmer from Sunnyside, Washington and longtime incumbent is facing a challenger from his own party for his congressional seat. In 2014, following the incumbent Doc Hasting’s decision not to run, Newhouse sought election to the Congress in Washington’s 4^th district, which represents the center of the state, from the Oregon border to the Canadian border, including Yakima and the Tri-Cities. In that race, Newhouse also faced off against a Republican challenger in what was seen as a battle between factions of the GOP: Newhouse as a mainstream Republican and his challenger, Clint Didier, as a member of the Tea Party Faction. This time around, Newhouse is again facing a challenge from a member of the party’s far-right: Trump-backed candidate Jerrod Sessler, who received more votes in the August primary than Newhouse. Sessler is challenging Newhouse, who he sees as a traitor to the party, claiming that Newhouse “betrayed our trust” by voting to impeach President Trump. Newhouse is one of only two Republicans remaining in Congress who voted to impeach Donald Trump, and the only remaining Washington Republican to do so following the ousting of Herrera Butler. While Newhouse has outraised Sessler by a large margin–$2,263,131 as opposed to Sessler’s $617,402–he remains vulnerable, particularly in an election with Trump on the ballot. While he has received support from congressional Republicans—Speaker Johnson and Majority Leader Scalise both came to the district this past week to campaign on behalf of Newhouse—he has also received more criticism from Donald Trump, who recently referred him as a “weak and pathetic RINO.”

With the presidential race being a toss-up and control of the Senate likely to be passed to the Republicans, control of the House of Representatives is crucial to the agendas of both parties, making the Washington State congressional races particularly noteworthy. Not only do they have the chance to determine control of the lower chamber, but they also have the power to make major changes to Washington’s uniquely powerful delegation, either by introducing the first truly Trump-aligned candidates to the delegation, or by rejecting the MAGA movement in the state once again. The legislators in the Washington delegation will be in a position to make crucial decisions that impact the University of Washington community, making this election cycle one to keep an eye on.

(Link to all campaign finance data)

With the high-stakes 2024 general election just days away, pollsters, pundits, and forecasters have nearly unanimously reached the conclusion that the race is a toss-up, with neither candidate holding a clear advantage. Vice President Kamala Harris, who was thrust into the campaign after President Joe Biden elected not to seek reelection this summer, has spent weeks making her pitch to swing-state voters across the country. Harris is seeking not only to excite the Democratic base but also to appeal to Independent and moderate Republican voters, some of whom are wary of a second Trump term. Former President Trump, who has also embarked on a grueling swing-state tour, recently held a rally in New York City in which a number of prominent conservative figures drew controversy after they hurled insults at the Vice President. While the presidential election is undoubtedly the most highly anticipated event in this election cycle, several races in Washington State remain highly competitive, the outcomes of which will have massive implications for the coming Congress.

Statewide

While there are two statewide elections in Washington this year, both are considered to be safely in Democratic hands. In the gubernatorial race, current Washington Attorney General Bob Ferguson is heavily favored to defeat former King County Sherrif and Republican Congressman Dave Reichert to succeed three-term Governor Jay Inslee. Similarly, four-term incumbent Senator Maria Cantwell is expected to cruise to victory in her reelection bid against emergency physician and former gubernatorial candidate Raul Garcia. While Cantwell’s reelection allows the state to maintain its powerful position in the Senate, it remains likely that both Cantwell and senior Senator Patty Murray will lose their chairmanships as Republicans are expected to win control of the chamber. Should Republicans win a majority in the Senate, Murray would become Ranking Member of the Senate Appropriations Committee, with Senator Susan Collins of Maine taking over as Chair. Similarly, Cantwell would become Ranking Member of the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, with Senator Cruz of Texas becoming Chair.

House Races

Of the 10 House Races in Washington, 5 of the incumbents, all of whom are Democrats, are expected to win handily: Rep. Suzan DelBene (WA-01), Rep. Rick Larsen (WA-02), Rep. Pramila Jayapal (WA-07), Rep. Adam Smith (WA-09), and Rep. Marilyn Strickland (WA-10).

Should the Democrats flip the House, as many expect them to, Smith would become Chair of the House Armed Services Committee, and Larsen would take over as Chair of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee.

Two members of the Washington delegation have decided not to seek reelection in 2024, Rep. Cathy McMorris-Rodgers (WA-05) and Rep. Derk Kilmer (WA-06). McMorris-Rodgers, a Republican, is stepping down after two decades of representing Eastern Washington, serving as Chair of both the House Republican Conference and the Energy and Natural Resources Committee during her tenure.

The race to succeed McMorris-Rodgers is between Republican Michael Baumgartner, the current Spokane County Treasurer and a former State Senator, and Carmela Conroy, a former Foreign Service Officer with the State Department and chair of the Spokane Democratic Party. Baumgartner is expected to win the solidly Republican district and has outraised Conroy by nearly $1 million. Baumgartner is an eastern Washington native who attended Washington State University for undergrad before receiving a master’s degree in public administration from Harvard. Following his studies, he served as the economics officer in the Office of Joint Planning & Assessment at the United States Embassy in Baghdad. After leaving Baghdad, Baumgartner served as a civilian contractor in Afghanistan before returning home and running for State Senate in 2010. Baumgartner defeated incumbent Chris Marr in what is still considered the most hotly contested and expensive state legislative race in Washington history. Baumgartner unsuccessfully challenged Senator Maria Cantwell for Senate in 2012, and successfully ran for Spokane County Treasurer in 2018.

The race to replace Rep. Derek Kilmer in Washington’s 6^th congressional district is between Emily Randall and Drew MacEwen, with Randall favored to win the district. Randall has been a state senator since 2019, representing District 26. Prior to her tenure in the State Senate, she earned a bachelor’s degree in Spanish and women’s studies from Wellesley college and worked as a development professional with the San Francisco AIDS Foundation, Planned Parenthood Federation of America, and Legal Voice. Randall received the endorsement of Senator Patty Murray, which likely helped her to defeat state Lands Commissioner Hilary Franz in the primary, who was endorsed by the outgoing Kilmer.