With the high-stakes 2024 general election just days away, pollsters, pundits, and forecasters have nearly unanimously reached the conclusion that the race is a toss-up, with neither candidate holding a clear advantage. Vice President Kamala Harris, who was thrust into the campaign after President Joe Biden elected not to seek reelection this summer, has spent weeks making her pitch to swing-state voters across the country. Harris is seeking not only to excite the Democratic base but also to appeal to Independent and moderate Republican voters, some of whom are wary of a second Trump term. Former President Trump, who has also embarked on a grueling swing-state tour, recently held a rally in New York City in which a number of prominent conservative figures drew controversy after they hurled insults at the Vice President. While the presidential election is undoubtedly the most highly anticipated event in this election cycle, several races in Washington State remain highly competitive, the outcomes of which will have massive implications for the coming Congress.
Statewide
While there are two statewide elections in Washington this year, both are considered to be safely in Democratic hands. In the gubernatorial race, current Washington Attorney General Bob Ferguson is heavily favored to defeat former King County Sherrif and Republican Congressman Dave Reichert to succeed three-term Governor Jay Inslee. Similarly, four-term incumbent Senator Maria Cantwell is expected to cruise to victory in her reelection bid against emergency physician and former gubernatorial candidate Raul Garcia. While Cantwell’s reelection allows the state to maintain its powerful position in the Senate, it remains likely that both Cantwell and senior Senator Patty Murray will lose their chairmanships as Republicans are expected to win control of the chamber. Should Republicans win a majority in the Senate, Murray would become Ranking Member of the Senate Appropriations Committee, with Senator Susan Collins of Maine taking over as Chair. Similarly, Cantwell would become Ranking Member of the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, with Senator Cruz of Texas becoming Chair.
House Races
Of the 10 House Races in Washington, 5 of the incumbents, all of whom are Democrats, are expected to win handily: Rep. Suzan DelBene (WA-01), Rep. Rick Larsen (WA-02), Rep. Pramila Jayapal (WA-07), Rep. Adam Smith (WA-09), and Rep. Marilyn Strickland (WA-10).
Should the Democrats flip the House, as many expect them to, Smith would become Chair of the House Armed Services Committee, and Larsen would take over as Chair of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee.
Two members of the Washington delegation have decided not to seek reelection in 2024, Rep. Cathy McMorris-Rodgers (WA-05) and Rep. Derk Kilmer (WA-06). McMorris-Rodgers, a Republican, is stepping down after two decades of representing Eastern Washington, serving as Chair of both the House Republican Conference and the Energy and Natural Resources Committee during her tenure.
The race to succeed McMorris-Rodgers is between Republican Michael Baumgartner, the current Spokane County Treasurer and a former State Senator, and Carmela Conroy, a former Foreign Service Officer with the State Department and chair of the Spokane Democratic Party. Baumgartner is expected to win the solidly Republican district and has outraised Conroy by nearly $1 million. Baumgartner is an eastern Washington native who attended Washington State University for undergrad before receiving a master’s degree in public administration from Harvard. Following his studies, he served as the economics officer in the Office of Joint Planning & Assessment at the United States Embassy in Baghdad. After leaving Baghdad, Baumgartner served as a civilian contractor in Afghanistan before returning home and running for State Senate in 2010. Baumgartner defeated incumbent Chris Marr in what is still considered the most hotly contested and expensive state legislative race in Washington history. Baumgartner unsuccessfully challenged Senator Maria Cantwell for Senate in 2012, and successfully ran for Spokane County Treasurer in 2018.
The race to replace Rep. Derek Kilmer in Washington’s 6th congressional district is between Emily Randall and Drew MacEwen, with Randall favored to win the district. Randall has been a state senator since 2019, representing District 26. Prior to her tenure in the State Senate, she earned a bachelor’s degree in Spanish and women’s studies from Wellesley college and worked as a development professional with the San Francisco AIDS Foundation, Planned Parenthood Federation of America, and Legal Voice. Randall received the endorsement of Senator Patty Murray, which likely helped her to defeat state Lands Commissioner Hilary Franz in the primary, who was endorsed by the outgoing Kilmer.