As the 114th Congress convenes, House and Senate leadership are facing a challenging timeline of To Dos or Must Dos in 2015. The House and Senate Republican leadership have announced their intentions to pass legislation to allow for the Keystone XL pipeline, reform our patent system, and overhaul the nation’s tax structure. However, any number of issues or deadlines, expected or a surprise, can derail these efforts.
A number of complicated and esoteric legislative fights are spread throughout the coming year giving House and Senate leadership regular hurdles to pass their legislative priorities or any legislation at all. The stumbling blocks range from tricky transportation issues, to how to fund parts of the government, to updating a pricey Medicare program, and the always contentious issue of how to raise the national debt ceiling.
Below is a timeline of must-do items, all of which will pass only with high-stakes, inside the beltway political brinksmanship, that Congress has to address in 2015.
January 20th, State of The Union Address
Obama delivers his penultimate State of the Union address at 9 p.m. Eastern. There he will outline areas where the Administration believes it can reach agreement with Republicans. Last year, Obama stressed his willingness to use his executive authority when Congress does not take action, and he acted on it. As he enters the last two years of his term, he is likely to be more willing to exercise that authority, as he has shown through Executive Orders on immigration and Cuba.
February 2, President’s Budget Due
Due by the first Monday of February, the President’s Budget Request (PBR) for Fiscal Year 2016 Budget (FY16) is expected to layout big agenda items and initiatives for the Administration. The PBR follows up with more detail to the roadmap laid out by the President in the State of the Union address. Each year of the last several years, Democrats have expressed support and hope Republicans would work with them, and Republican leaders quickly disabused them of that notion. This year, the Administration has signaled FY16 will continue support for a number of science and technology priorities, including heightened emphasis on using big data to advance agency missions and a push for further scientific discovery and innovation and clean energy, much like in FY15.
For the last several years, the Obama Administration has missed the first of February deadline and the expectation is that it will do the same for FY16. Expect the budget to be revealed at the end of February or early March.
February 27, Immigration Fight
On February 28th, funding expires for the Department of Homeland Security. A short-term extension of Homeland Security funding was a condition for many House Republicans to vote “yea” last year for the “cromnibus.” House Leadership contended such a move would force the President’s hand on his immigration executive orders. It is currently unclear whether the House GOP has a plan to extract concessions in exchange for legislation to float the DHS coffers through the rest of FY15 or if Members are prepared to see the critical agency shut down on the first of March.
March 15, Debt Ceiling reached
The debt limit will technically be reached on March 15, though the Treasury Department’s “extraordinary measures” and springtime tax revenue are expected to buy Congress several months of additional time. It is estimated lawmakers have sometime between late Spring perhaps to early Fall before Congress has to act to avoid government default. Typically, the Treasury Department pushes lawmakers to act more quickly, while congressional leaders often seek to vote at the last minute in order to increase pressure on wavering lawmakers.
Republicans have not been able to raise the debt ceiling without the help of Democrats in nearly a decade. House Republican Leadership relied on Democrats to pull the weight of 2014’s clean debt ceiling increase while Senate Republican leaders joined Senate Democrats to pass the measure. The debt ceiling is a highly charged measure, and typically moves only with the high-stakes political brinksmanship and many conditions from both parties attached. If action is delayed until Fall, Congress could face a major showdown that couples the debt limit increase with action on FY16 appropriations — setting the stage for yet another major government shutdown threat.
March 31, “Doc Fix” patch renewal
For years, Washington has punted on changes to the Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR) formula, known as the “Doc Fix”, but there is a desire to fix the problem for good. That would cost billions of dollars. Last year, Republican leaders were so short on support for legislation that they struck a deal with Democrats to pass a 12-month extension by voice vote when no one was on the chamber floor to object. The maneuver worked, but House Republicans were intensely upset. This time, Speaker Boehner and his top lieutenants will have to find the votes to pass a short- or long-term patch, and most likely have to appeal to the minority party for help.
May 31, Highway Trust Fund runs out of money
The account that pays for critical improvements to the nation’s transportation infrastructure, bridges and roads is due to run out of money by the end of May, and lawmakers would like to come up with something more than another short-term patch. The existing extension’s looming expiration date sets up another intraparty fight between Republicans who think the federal government ought to invest in transportation and infrastructure improvements and those who believe that should be left to the states.
Additionally, there will also be some important new regulations, including a Department of Transportation rule due out early in 2015 that would address the recent series of oil train accidents by setting new standards for the tank cars. And, the Federal Aviation Administration could put out a new rule on commercial drones to address the safety hazards if they get too close to large passenger planes. The drone rules could have a chilling effect on university research related to security, agriculture, natural resources, and aviation.
Mid-to-late June, Decision on Obamacare subsidies
The Supreme Court has decided to hear King v. Burwell, which will decide whether the Affordable Care Act (ACA) gives millions of people a federal subsidy to buy health insurance. Plaintiffs in the case argue that the subsidies can be given only to those people who live in states that have created their own health exchanges, which would mean that residents of more than 30 states do not qualify.
The court will hear oral arguments March 5th and likely hand down a decision near the end of its term in June. At least four justices agreed to review whether an appeals court was right to uphold the subsidies, not a good sign for the Obama administration. This ruling sets the stages for more legislative attempts to repeal the the ACA.
September 30, Federal fiscal year ends
Congress must pass appropriations bills by the end of September. No one wants another government shutdown, as we saw in 2013, but the inevitable friction between the Republican Congress and the Democratic Administration, especially over the fate of the Affordable Care Act, is inevitable.
The GOP will probably try to defund the Obamacare in the spring budget process because budgets cannot be filibustered and thus need only 51 votes. But Obama would veto any fiscal legislation that rolls back his signature achievement. The real test will come in September when Republicans have their truest chance to block money for implementing the law. And, if Congress has not yet taken action on the debt limit by this point, Republicans could hold all the FY16 appropriations bills hostage in order to gain leverage for greater spending cuts and/or a repeal of the ACA.
Sept. 30, FAA out of money
Funding for the whole government is set to expire at the end of September, the very same day funding for the FAA is also due to lapse. As with the Highway Trust Fund and surface transportation programs, lawmakers must secure support for an extension of the FAA and federal aviation initiatives, even if it is only a short-term fix. Fights could erupt within the House GOP over funding for small and rural airports — and inside both parties over daily limits on long distance flights coming into Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport, which sits in closest proximity to the Capitol out of all the area airports.
October 1, Return of Sequestration
The deal cut by Senate Budget Committee Chairwoman Patty Murray (D-WA) and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) set spending levels through FY15. That means Congress is virtually certain to resume its fight over total, military and domestic spending this year when it considers the FY16 budget resolutions, if there are bills to pass, and in the FY16 appropriations bills. If the Senate or House is unable to pass a budget reconciliation bill, which is a common occurrence in recent years, the top line budget numbers will likely be included in a measure with items like the debt ceiling increase or defunding Obamacare. Neither the House nor Senate has majorities to override a veto.
The Office of Federal Relations will continue to monitor these issues and update on the situation and progress as it evolves.