Members of the 119th Congress have officially been sworn in, with President-elect Trump soon to follow. Republicans will now look to navigate a number of important pieces of legislation in the coming months, with slim majorities in both chambers.
To start, the latest Continuing Resolution (CR) for FY2025 passed in late December funds the government through March 14th, meaning some of the immediate attention of this Congress—at least that of the appropriators in both chambers—will be focused on funding the government through the end of the fiscal year.
Since the beginning of the Fiscal Year 2025 on October 1, Congress has passed two short-term spending extensions that maintained levels of government spending from the prior year but punted on the important funding decisions that need to be made for the rest of the fiscal year. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) now face the difficult task of attempting to pass appropriations bills in two sharply divided chambers with small majorities.
Regardless of when Congress finishes the appropriations for FY2025, it will need to turn its attention to the FY2026 process. It is possible that the relevant committees may start crafting legislation for FY2026 before FY2025 is fully wrapped up. The FY2025 process started under the Biden Administration, and the new Republican Congressional majorities and the new incoming Trump Administration after the November elections wanted to hold off on finishing it in order to give the new Trump team an opportunity to shape the remainder of the year. With the vast majority of the FY2025 bill already drafted, it remains to be seen how the negotiations to finish out the year will turn out. It is against this backdrop that FY2026 will kick off, with Republicans fully in control. The FY2026 appropriations process will be affected by the incoming Administration’s budget request. The budget is due by the first Monday in February, though this is typically delayed and will almost certainly be late during a transition year.
Additionally, President-elect Trump and GOP leaders in both chambers have stated their intent to pass much of Trump’s agenda through budget reconciliation early in the year, a very exacting and complicated process through which mandatory spending levels must be addressed. The benefit of this process is that changes being mandated by it can be passed with a simple majority in the Senate, thus avoiding the filibuster. This plan has generated the most attention on the budget front for the new Administration and Congress. This plan has already been complicated, however, by disagreements within the Republican party.
At the end of the day, in broad terms, the GOP’s goals for reconciliation are to pass immigration and tax legislation as well as bring about changes to other mandatory programs.
With respect to the process, House GOP leaders have spoken in favor of passing one large reconciliation bill, which would include tax, defense, and immigration provisions. House leaders argue that the one-bill approach will build maximum support within the party, and have also noted the difficulty of passing two reconciliation bills in the same year.
Senate GOP leaders, however, believe that a two-pronged approach would put the party in a better position. Passing an initial bill focused on border and security legislation would give Trump an early win, Senate leaders say, while also allowing for more time to construct the complicated and time-consuming changes to tax law to be passed in the second bill.
Trump initially voiced support for the House approach, though he walked back his commitment the next day, saying he was open to either approach. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) publicly shared that party leaders may need several more weeks to agree on a plan. Per Scalise, the party is “moving forward under the guise of one bill…how we do it is a discussion, but what we’re doing is not under discussion. Everybody’s focused on the same thing.”
Both Scalise and Johnson have both stated that they would like to move a reconciliation package through the House by the end of April.
