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Lame Duck Begins

Congress returns to Capitol Hill today to kick off the lame-duck session.  They are expected to work this week, break next week for Thanksgiving, and then return the last week in November for three more weeks.  During this session lawmakers will tackle big issues including sequestration, taxes, and disaster aid – among other issues.

Congress won’t likely do much this week – except welcome their new colleagues.  Nearly 80 newly elected House and Senate freshman are arriving on Capitol Hill for the start of freshman orientation.

We look forward to working with the new members of the Washington state congressional delegation: Suzan DelBene (D-1st), Derek Kilmer (D-6th), and Denny Heck (D-10th).

Post Election Look

After a long and tenuous campaign season, the election results are in and essentially reflect the status quo. President Obama will serve a second term as President, the Senate will remain in the control of Democrats, and the House will remain in the control of Republicans.

While the party-makeup of the new Congress will essentially be the same as it was in the 112th Congress, at least one-third of the 113th Congress will feature House members with less than three years of experience. Across the board there will likely be greater polarization among the two parties in both chambers – with liberals gaining among Democrats and conservatives gaining among Republicans.

The Washington state congressional delegation picks up three new members.  Suzan DelBene (D) will fill Jay Inslee’s remaining term through the lame duck session and also join the 113th Congress to represent District 1.  Derek Kilmer (D) was elected to the seat being vacated by Congressman Nom Dicks as he retires, and Denny Heck (D) is the member-elect for the new 10th District. All other members of our delegation were re-elected easily.

It is important to note that even though the President was re-elected, his Administration will be reshuffling some of its personnel line-up. In an Administration more willing to push the limits of Executive authority in education policy than any in history, who fills key policy slots at the White House, OMB, and the Education Department, will have a critical impact on education policy throughout the nation. Obama has had considerable success in driving an education policy agenda through the Executive – not Legislative – Branch. Even if there are some shifts in personnel, the Administration is likely to keep a similar team and game plan to create and push policy out through the Department of Education.

The bottom line is that we expect the Obama Administration to be once again in control of the policy-making process – and therefore able to set the policy agenda – right up until the day when Congress proves it can pass bills that can be signed into law. But in the end, there is only so much an Administration can do to implement significant and lasting policy change in education without the involvement of Congress.

The last session of Congress was one of the least productive in memory on education policy. The accomplishments were primarily limited to short-term fixes to the Pell Grant shortfall and preventing the automatic doubling of federal subsidized student loan interest rates. Overall, despite attempts to reauthorize ESEA and WIA, not one education or job training authorization bill made it to the Floor for consideration, with the exception of a charter school bill that was passed by the House. Nor was there a significant amount of education policy driven through appropriations bills, which has been common up until recently. It is extremely unlikely that Congress will take up the Higher Education Act (HEA) even though it is scheduled for reauthorization.

As a result of this inaction, the Obama Administration was given nearly complete latitude to carry out many of their key policy initiatives with very little direction from Congress.

The Office of Federal Relations looks forward to working with the returning and new members of our congressional delegation, and hopes that they can come together to protect and promote education and research issues important to the higher education community in the state of Washington.

One More Day…

Tomorrow is election day – finally! Regardless of who wins the presidency, he will have to move quickly to find a solution to avert the fiscal cliff that can muster enough votes in a politically divided Congress.  As I’ve been reporting for much of the year, Congress must take action by the end of the calendar year in order to avoid a tax increase of more than $500 billion on nearly 90 percent of Americans.  Unemployment assistance for millions of jobless Americans also would lapse, and physicians treating Medicare patients would see their reimbursement payments cut.  But the most crucial element of the fiscal cliff comes in the more than $100 billion in automatic, across-the-board spending cuts – or the sequester – that is set to take place on January 2, 2013 and would cut spending equally between domestic and defense programs.  Lawmakers in both parties oppose letting sequestration take effect — particularly because of the consequences to the Pentagon — but to date there has been no consensus on how to avert it.

Also looming is the likelihood that the White House will have to ask Congress to raise the debt ceiling again sometime in the first three months of 2013, potentially reigniting the partisan battle that nearly led to a government shutdown in 2011.  The Treasury Department reiterated last week that the government will hit its current debt limit before the end of the year but has the ability to postpone potential default until early next year.  Many hope to deal with this issue during the lame duck session rather than leaving it to the next Congress.

The results of tomorrow’s election will likely determine the eventual outcome of the lame duck session – what issues are tacked and what gets punted to the next Congress.  The Office of Federal Relations will closely monitor and continue to report on the elections outcome and lame duck session.

CR and Sequester Update

Members of Congress are discussing the possibility of approving a continuing resolution (CR) for the entire fiscal year to avoid partisan political battles and a possible government shutdown. Appropriators continue to press for completing this year’s spending bills in a lame-duck omnibus, but it’s more likely that they will be left for the next Congress. However, leaders in the 113th Congress are likely to be immersed in fights over the debt limit and tax policy next spring and may well opt for another six-month CR that would cover the rest of the fiscal year. The current CR (PL 112-175) expires on March 27, 2013.

On the sequester front, President Obama is speaking with confidence about a “grand bargain” on raising taxes and reducing the deficit that could be reached within six months if he’s re-elected. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, is reiterating his plan to increase defense spending and repeal the 2010 health care overhaul law to help balance the budget. Obama’s allusion to a six-month timeline for a budget agreement suggests that he agrees with many lawmakers and outside observers who say that a large deal will be impossible in a lame-duck session of Congress. Some lawmakers and analysts have said Congress should agree to a small package of budget cuts and establish the framework of a bigger package in the lame duck.

There are just eight days until the election, the result of which will certainly shape the agenda for the lame duck session and early months of the next Congress.

Source:  CQ Budget Tracker

Higher Ed Agendas Under Obama or Romney

President Obama’s campaign recently released a brochure detailing how he might approach education issues during a second term. And there are now several articles popping up, including a comprehensive one from Inside Higher Ed, that look as how either an Obama second term or a new President Romney would look like.

Based on his first term, a second Obama term seems likely to bring greater scrutiny and regulation to all aspects of higher education. But the President is equally likely to continue his strong support for federal financial aid programs and his emphasis on college access and completion for low-income students, at least within the constraints of tight federal budgets. A Romney administration would likely propose changes to federal financial aid eligibility and student loan repayment options, but could offer some relief on reporting regulations.

Though they might handle it differently, neither administration is likely to go easy on colleges in terms of accountability. The focus of either administration would certainly be on rising tuition and questions about quality and value.