Congress is scheduled to return next week for a Lame Duck session of Congress and many items still remain on the 2016 agenda before Trump takes office, including wrapping up the 11 remaining FY 2017 spending bills and a 21st Century Cures bill that both Majority Leader McConnell and Speaker Ryan said was a priority for passage in the Lame Duck session. While President-elect Trump won’t be signing any bills in the lame duck, he will influence decisions on how to wrap up the 114th Congress.
While it is too soon to tell whether or not Congress will try to address its remaining legislative business in a Lame Duck session of Congress, or wait until President-elect Trump is sworn in on January 20 and Republicans control both the House and the Senate, a few things are fairly certain, dealing with the FY 2017 and the 21st Century Cures bill will be the Lame Duck priories.
FY 2017, Finishing the Fiscal Year
The current Continuing Resolution keeping the federal government open expires on December 9. Prior to the elections, Republican leaders expressed support for passing a series of “minibuses” that would group appropriations bills together, while Democrats were leaning toward an omnibus bill that would include all of the remaining FY 2017 bills. House Appropriations Committee Chair Rogers (R-KY) has said no decisions have been made yet on the process, but as of today, the House Appropriations Committee has put conference negotiations on hold pending further analysis.
However, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said this week that funding the government remains a top priority heading into the lame duck and that lawmakers will wrap up spending bills this year rather than punt to the next Congress via another stopgap spending bill. McConnell said he plans to talk to House Speaker Paul Ryan and President Obama about how the FY 2017 bills could be enacted, but gave little in the way of specifics on how this would be accomplished.
That plan, though, was criticized by conservative House Freedom Caucus prior to the election as the Caucus continues to pushing for a continuing resolution to extend government funding into the next calendar year so that congressional Republicans can negotiate a spending package with Trump rather than Obama.
Must Pass? Should Pass? Legislation
Additionally, outstanding legislative priorities include the 21st Century Cures medical innovation package and mental health reform. The Cures package is a particular priority of House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Upton (R-MI), who is term limited as Chair. Upton has been vocal on having a package on the House floor next week when the House returned to session. However, it’s unclear if the measure will be considered. Prior to the election, Democrats voiced wanting the mandatory funding for the National Institutes of Health in the bill, but also expressed desires to insert prescription drug controls and concerns about offsets. In addition, bringing a large mandatory spending bill to the floor may not help Ryan keep his speakership with his contentious caucus.
Several other issues remain before Congress, including the FY2017 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which has seen some hiccups this year, but must pass annually. Also in limbo is the Water Resources and Development Act (WRDA), which passed the House and Senate respectively and is currently being conferenced.
Trade
The 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, which was a priority for The Obama Administration in the Lame Duck, will not be considered, according to House Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady (R-TX). It will remain ”on hold” until President-elect Donald Trump decides whether to take action on the agreement in the next Congress.
SCOTUS
Supreme Court Justice Nominee Merrick Garland will not receive a confirmation hearing or a vote. With the Senate remaining in Republican control, it will wait for President Trump to submit a new nominee for the Supreme Court after he is sworn in on January 20, 2017.
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At this juncture, there are two likely scenarios for Congress to deal with these issues, and the outlook will be clearer in the coming days.
Clear the Decks
Under this scenario, President-elect Trump would indicate to Congress that he would like them to complete as much business as possible in the remaining days of the 114th Congress. This would free up both President Trump, and the 115th Congress to focus on his priorities during the first 100 days of his Administration, as well as big-picture items such as a Supreme Court nomination and the debt-ceiling (which could be reached as early as March 2017). This path would require some degree of cooperation from both the Obama Administration and the conservative element of the Republican conference.
Punting
The second scenario would be for Congress to push off all but must-do issues until after President-Elect Trump is sworn in. Because Republicans would control both chambers of Congress and the White House, they would, in theory, have the ability to include more of their priorities in these bills before passage. The risk in this scenario is that it bogs down the new Administration during their first days in office, at which time they will want to unveil new policy ideas, and when they have the most political capital to see those ideas to fruition.