Today, President Elect Trump named his Vice President- Elect Mike Pence as the new head of the transition team with strong input from Senator Jeff Sessions (R-AL). Previously, the transition team was headed by long-time Trump supporter, Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ). The transition team is responsible for filling over 4000 positions within the new Administration, including those at the Cabinet-level.
Category: On the Hill
Trump Agenda?
President-elect Donald Trump (PEOTUS) met with President Barack Obama this morning in the Oval Office at the White House (in what may be the most interesting meeting there in a long while). Trump and Vice President-elect Mike Pence also met with House Speaker Paul Ryan after the White House meeting, and Pence met with Vice President Joe Biden, too. Other intel, Pence has already called at discussed the transition with the presumptive Democratic Senate Leader, Chuck Schumer (D-NY), and has reached out to House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA).
What can we expect in the First 100 days of a Trump Administration? While many details are still unclear, there are some areas where we can expect both the White House and Congress to act. Congress next year will need to take on must-do items such as funding the government and raising the nation’s debt limit. Also to be expected are some sort of tax reform (likely cuts), Obamacare repeal and replacement, and immigration reform.
The slimmer House Republican majority will skew more conservative. We should expect elements of Ryan’s “Better Way” agenda that encompasses tax and health care overhauls, as well as national security and economic measures. could easily rise to the top of the agenda.
The tight margin in the Senate — where Republicans are in control but still are far from the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster — means that the party’s leaders are most likely to use the budget reconciliation process to move their agenda. That procedure would only require a simple majority to cut off debate and proceed to a final vote.
Ryan has already said that he would seek to use reconciliation to pass tax cuts, which incidentally is deploying the same procedural tool that Democrats used in 2010 to pass the health care law.
On the campaign trail, Trump championed infrastructure spending and paid family leave during his campaign, which could attract Democratic support. Trump’s economic plan — a combination of tax cuts, new spending on immigration enforcement and tariffs on foreign goods — would explode the deficit, even if Congress were to scale back somewhat the $4.4 trillion tax cut that Trump rolled out Sept. 15 at the Economic Club of New York.
Lame Duck Priorities
Congress is scheduled to return next week for a Lame Duck session of Congress and many items still remain on the 2016 agenda before Trump takes office, including wrapping up the 11 remaining FY 2017 spending bills and a 21st Century Cures bill that both Majority Leader McConnell and Speaker Ryan said was a priority for passage in the Lame Duck session. While President-elect Trump won’t be signing any bills in the lame duck, he will influence decisions on how to wrap up the 114th Congress.
While it is too soon to tell whether or not Congress will try to address its remaining legislative business in a Lame Duck session of Congress, or wait until President-elect Trump is sworn in on January 20 and Republicans control both the House and the Senate, a few things are fairly certain, dealing with the FY 2017 and the 21st Century Cures bill will be the Lame Duck priories.
FY 2017, Finishing the Fiscal Year
The current Continuing Resolution keeping the federal government open expires on December 9. Prior to the elections, Republican leaders expressed support for passing a series of “minibuses” that would group appropriations bills together, while Democrats were leaning toward an omnibus bill that would include all of the remaining FY 2017 bills. House Appropriations Committee Chair Rogers (R-KY) has said no decisions have been made yet on the process, but as of today, the House Appropriations Committee has put conference negotiations on hold pending further analysis.
However, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said this week that funding the government remains a top priority heading into the lame duck and that lawmakers will wrap up spending bills this year rather than punt to the next Congress via another stopgap spending bill. McConnell said he plans to talk to House Speaker Paul Ryan and President Obama about how the FY 2017 bills could be enacted, but gave little in the way of specifics on how this would be accomplished.
That plan, though, was criticized by conservative House Freedom Caucus prior to the election as the Caucus continues to pushing for a continuing resolution to extend government funding into the next calendar year so that congressional Republicans can negotiate a spending package with Trump rather than Obama.
Must Pass? Should Pass? Legislation
Additionally, outstanding legislative priorities include the 21st Century Cures medical innovation package and mental health reform. The Cures package is a particular priority of House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Upton (R-MI), who is term limited as Chair. Upton has been vocal on having a package on the House floor next week when the House returned to session. However, it’s unclear if the measure will be considered. Prior to the election, Democrats voiced wanting the mandatory funding for the National Institutes of Health in the bill, but also expressed desires to insert prescription drug controls and concerns about offsets. In addition, bringing a large mandatory spending bill to the floor may not help Ryan keep his speakership with his contentious caucus.
Several other issues remain before Congress, including the FY2017 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which has seen some hiccups this year, but must pass annually. Also in limbo is the Water Resources and Development Act (WRDA), which passed the House and Senate respectively and is currently being conferenced.
Trade
The 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, which was a priority for The Obama Administration in the Lame Duck, will not be considered, according to House Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady (R-TX). It will remain ”on hold” until President-elect Donald Trump decides whether to take action on the agreement in the next Congress.
SCOTUS
Supreme Court Justice Nominee Merrick Garland will not receive a confirmation hearing or a vote. With the Senate remaining in Republican control, it will wait for President Trump to submit a new nominee for the Supreme Court after he is sworn in on January 20, 2017.
—
At this juncture, there are two likely scenarios for Congress to deal with these issues, and the outlook will be clearer in the coming days.
Clear the Decks
Under this scenario, President-elect Trump would indicate to Congress that he would like them to complete as much business as possible in the remaining days of the 114th Congress. This would free up both President Trump, and the 115th Congress to focus on his priorities during the first 100 days of his Administration, as well as big-picture items such as a Supreme Court nomination and the debt-ceiling (which could be reached as early as March 2017). This path would require some degree of cooperation from both the Obama Administration and the conservative element of the Republican conference.
Punting
The second scenario would be for Congress to push off all but must-do issues until after President-Elect Trump is sworn in. Because Republicans would control both chambers of Congress and the White House, they would, in theory, have the ability to include more of their priorities in these bills before passage. The risk in this scenario is that it bogs down the new Administration during their first days in office, at which time they will want to unveil new policy ideas, and when they have the most political capital to see those ideas to fruition.
Obamacare & the 115th
Today, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) announced the Republican leadership’s intention to repeal the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, quickly into the 115th Congress. While there is no confirmation on a legislative vehicle, the most likely means for Congress to pass something will be the Budget Reconciliation process. This process is also the vehicle that has been suggested to move any tax reform policies.
The slim majority of Republicans in the Senate, which will likely be 51-53 seats, would not be able to overcome the 60 vote cloture requirement. The Budget Reconciliation process would avoid a cloture vote, since the Budget Reconciliation requires a simple majority to pass.
Created by the Congressional Budget Act of 1974, Budget Reconciliation allows for expedited consideration of certain tax, spending, and debt limit legislation. In the Senate, reconciliation bills are not subject to filibuster and the scope of amendments is limited, giving this process real advantages for enacting controversial budget and tax measures. This paper addresses some frequently asked questions about reconciliation.
Obama Announces Intent to Appoint New Board Members to the NSB
The White House announced that President Barack Obama intends to appoint W. Kent Fuchs, Victor R. McCrary, Emilio F. Moran, and Julia M. Phillips to the National Science Board (NSB).
Victor R. McCrary is Vice President for Research and Economic Development at Morgan State University. Dr. McCrary was the Business Area Executive for Science & Technology at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, where he managed technology investment strategies for over $60 million for internal research and development (IRAD) projects targeted to the areas of national defense and national security. Dr. McCrary was also a division chief at the National Institute of Standards and Technology where he received the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Gold Medal for facilitating and developing the first global industry standard for e-books. He has published over 60 articles and is a Fellow of the American Chemical Society.
Emilio F. Moran is the John A. Hannah Distinguished Professor at the Center for Global Change and Earth Observations at Michigan State University. He is also a Research Professor at the University of Maryland’s Population Research Center. He brings experience as a NSF grantee in cultural anthropology, geography, ecosystem science, and other disciplines. He provides an important interface with the physical and biological sciences through his research on human interactions with the environment under conditions of change. Dr. Moran has published over 200 articles, 11 books and 15 edited volumes. He was elected to the U.S. National Academy of Sciences in 2010.
Julia M. Phillips is Director Emeritus at Sandia National Laboratories. As Vice President and Chief Technology Officer, she managed the Laboratory’s $160 million Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program. She was also responsible for research strategy development, implementation, and intellectual property protection and deployment. Dr. Phillips came to Sandia in 1995 after spending 14 years as technical staff and a manager at AT&T Bell Laboratories. She is a member of the National Academy of Engineering and a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.
The White House also reappointed Arthur Bienenstock, W. Carl Lineberger, and Anneila Sargent to each serve a second six-year term. Dr. Bienenstock, Professor Emeritus of Photon Science at Stanford University, has led the Board’s initiatives on reducing administrative burdens on federally funded researchers. Dr. Lineberger, E. U. Condon Distinguished Professor of Chemistry at the University of Colorado, and Dr. Sargent, Ira S. Bowen Professor of Astronomy at the California Institute of Technology, have both played key roles in NSB’s oversight and guidance of major NSF facilities and programs.
The NSB began accepting nominations for the Board last fall and made recommendations to President Obama for his consideration. Every two years, eight members rotate off the Board and a new class is appointed. Board membership will be complete when one more new member is appointed to the class of 2022.