Skip to content
News and updates

Category: Pure Politics

Trump Agenda?

Posted on

President-elect Donald Trump (PEOTUS) met with President Barack Obama this morning in the Oval Office at the White House (in what may be the most interesting meeting there in a long while). Trump and Vice President-elect Mike Pence also met with House Speaker Paul Ryan after the White House meeting, and Pence met with Vice President Joe Biden, too. Other intel, Pence has already called at discussed the transition with the presumptive Democratic Senate Leader, Chuck Schumer (D-NY), and has reached out to House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA).

What can we expect in the First 100 days of a Trump Administration? While many details are still unclear, there are some areas where we can expect both the White House and Congress to act. Congress next year will need to take on must-do items such as funding the government and raising the nation’s debt limit. Also to be expected are some sort of tax reform (likely cuts), Obamacare repeal and replacement, and immigration reform.

The slimmer House Republican majority will skew more conservative. We should expect elements of Ryan’s “Better Way” agenda that encompasses tax and health care overhauls, as well as national security and economic measures. could easily rise to the top of the agenda.

The tight margin in the Senate — where Republicans are in control but still are far from the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster — means that the party’s leaders are most likely to use the budget reconciliation process to move their agenda. That procedure would only require a simple majority to cut off debate and proceed to a final vote.

Ryan has already said that he would seek to use reconciliation to pass tax cuts,  which incidentally is deploying the same procedural tool that Democrats used in 2010 to pass the health care law.

On the campaign trail, Trump championed infrastructure spending and paid family leave during his campaign, which could attract Democratic support. Trump’s economic plan — a combination of tax cuts, new spending on immigration enforcement and tariffs on foreign goods — would explode the deficit, even if Congress were to scale back somewhat the $4.4 trillion tax cut that Trump rolled out Sept. 15 at the Economic Club of New York.

 

Obamacare & the 115th

Posted on

Today, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) announced the Republican leadership’s intention to repeal the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, quickly into the 115th Congress. While there is no confirmation on a legislative vehicle, the most likely means for Congress to pass something will be the Budget Reconciliation process. This process is also the vehicle that has been suggested to move any tax reform policies.

The slim majority of Republicans in the Senate, which will likely be 51-53 seats, would not be able to overcome the 60 vote cloture requirement. The Budget Reconciliation process would avoid a cloture vote, since the Budget Reconciliation requires a simple majority to pass.

Created by the Congressional Budget Act of 1974, Budget Reconciliation allows for expedited consideration of certain tax, spending, and debt limit legislation.  In the Senate, reconciliation bills are not subject to filibuster and the scope of amendments is limited, giving this process real advantages for enacting controversial budget and tax measures.  This paper addresses some frequently asked questions about reconciliation.

The 45th President of the United States Donald Trump

Posted on

Almost every DC pollster and expert thought that Clinton would win. They were all wrong. They were also wrong about the Senate. In the 115th Congress, Republicans will control the White House, the Senate, and the House.

Last night, Donald Trump was elected the 45th President of the United States. While a few states remain too close to call, Trump won 279 electoral votes to Clinton’s 228. While Trump won the electoral math, it does appear as if Clinton will slightly overtake him in the popular vote.

Clinton conceded to Trump around 2:30 am EST.

A look at where Trump won helps explain why Trump won. Swing states expected to go for Clinton or to change Senate leadership — Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, Missouri, North Carolina — all went for Trump. He carried three battle ground states — Florida, North Carolina, Ohio — and then cracked Clinton’s blue wall with wins in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Few if any pundits predicted a Trump win in Pennsylvania or a lead in Michigan, each having been won by every Democratic Presidential candidate since President Reagan last notched a victory for Republicans in those states in 1988.

Clinton consistently underperformed President Obama’s strength with his winning coalition of college educated women, minorities, and young voters. While Clinton bested Trump by 13 points among women, this margin was no better than Obama’s margin in 2008 or 2012 among this same group. Trump, on the other hand, logged support from 70 percent of white men without a college education, besting Mitt Romney’s showing by 10 points. White male voters, both with and without a college education supported Trump, and in the case of blue collar workers, overwhelmingly supported Trump.

While President Obama received about 33 percent support from white men without a college degree, Clinton received just over 20 percent support in this demographic group. The Clinton voter of the 2008 primaries became Trump voters in 2016 — and their concentration in tipping point states carried a significant impact in the result.

Congressional Results

In addition, the Senate Democrats only gained one seat, in Illinois, leaving the Senate in Republican control as Republicans are guaranteed 51 seats. Two Senate seats are still outstanding — New Hampshire has yet to be called and Louisiana will have a runoff in December. Regardless of who wins or if the sitting Republican Senators keep their seats, it will not change the majority.

The House remained in Republican control, but with a narrower, more conservative agenda. The very conservative House Freedom Caucus, and now a greater percentage of the House Republican Caucus, threatened to withhold support for Speaker Paul Ryan to remain Speaker in the 115th Congress.

Even so, elements of Ryan’s “Better Way” policy platform that encompasses tax and health care overhauls, as well as national security and economic measures, could easily rise to the top of the agenda with or without Ryan at the helm.

Washington’s Newest Member of Congress

Pramila Jayapal won Washington’s 7th Congressional District (CD) seat, which was filled for the last thirty years by Jim McDermott, who will retire this year. Jayapal will be the first Indian-American woman to be elected to the U.S. Congress. She moved to the United States in 1982 at the age of 16 to attend college, and worked as a civil rights advocate and Washington state senator prior to running for Congress.

She won with the support from 136,547 Seattle voters compared to opponent, fellow Democrat Brady Pinero Walkinshaw’s 102,341 votes.

Elsewhere in Washington, all incumbents will return to the nation’s capital for the 115th Congress. Here are the results by Congressional District:

  • US Senate: Patty Murray (D) with 60.79% of votes
  • CD 1 – Suzan Delbene (D) with 57.19% of votes
  • CD 2 – Rick Larsen (D) with 65.15% of votes
  • CD 3 – Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) with 58.83% of votes
  • CD 4 – Dan Newhouse (R) with 57.84% of votes
  • CD 5 – Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) with 58.32% of votes
  • CD 6 – Derek Kilmer (D) with 62.25% of votes
  • CD 7 – Pramila Jayapal (D) with 57.16% of votes

Lame Duck Agenda and Beyond

In the near term, Congress needs to pass some sort of appropriations measure to either complete FY 2017 or continue FY 2016 funding. The path forward prior to the election was murky, but now is even more unclear.

In the 115th, Congress will need to take on must-do items such as funding the government, whether that means finishing FY 2017 and/or approaching FY 2018,  and raising the nation’s debt limit. The slimmer House Republican majority will skew more conservative, and already some hardliners in the Freedom Caucus have threatened to pull their support for Speaker Ryan.

The Trump campaign was not policy heavy, and many questions on what a Trump Presidency will look and do remain murky at best. On the trail, Trump was vocal on repealing Obamacare, and now with the House and Senate majorities, that repeal seems very possible. Other campaign promises, such as a border wall, immigration restrictions, tax breaks, and opposition to trade deals are all expected to be considered moving forward. One item, which has been prominent for Republicans across the board, has been looking for a massive infrastructure bill. If history is a guide, such a bill, like one seen in ARRA, would be wide and sweeping.

As we get further in to the Trump transition, Federal Relations will continue to update as more information becomes available.

Get Out the Vote

Posted on

It’s finally election day! Over 40 million Americans have already voted, thanks to early voting opportunities across the country, which should be over a third of the votes cast in this election.

Some basics…

To win the election, Trump or Clinton needs at least 270 electoral votes. There are 538 electoral votes in total. Each state gets as many “electors” as they have members of Congress. This corresponds to 435 members of the House + 100 Senators + 3 electors for the District of Columbia = 538 electoral college votes.

Here are the core swing states: Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, and Nevada. Other states like New Hampshire, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Michigan and one lonely electoral vote in Maine could plausibly be up for grabs. 

The earliest indicator of the night will be New Hampshire. It’s small but mighty with only four electoral college votes. However, If Trump wins there then he’s likely surged enough to win the whole thing. And if Hillary wins New Hampshire then it becomes much more difficult for Trump to win without a massive upset in the midwest (Wisconsin and Michigan are considered reliably democratic) or by winning Pennsylvania.

The two other East Coast states that might call the election are North Carolina and Florida. If Hillary wins either of those states then it’s basically over for Trump.

Control of the Senate is also crucial tonight. There are 34 seats up for reelection; Democrats need to win 15 of those 34 seats to claim the majority and Republicans need to win 21. Keep an eye on Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina, which are especially close. 

To track what’s happening in the polls across the country here are some sites you might want to hit refresh on tonight.

The New York Times is providing unlimited access to all New York Times digital platforms through Wednesday so you can keep up with the election via the Times. 

Get accurate voter data from 270 To Win.

Get Nate Silver (and Co’s) take at 538.

Late Votes, Last Minute Save

Posted on

With almost two days to spare, the House passed a 10-week stopgap spending bill, passed by the Senate earlier today, that would prevent a government shutdown at the end of this week. The measure passed the House by a vote of 342-85.

As previously mentioned, the measure generally provides continued funding for federal government operations through December 9 at existing levels. There were FY 2016 adjustments for FY 2017, including increase funding to address the opioid epidemic. The measure also provides $500 million in emergency supplemental funding for initial disaster response efforts to severe flooding in Louisiana and other states. It provides $1.1 billion in supplemental funding for activities in response to the Zika virus, including $933 million in domestic funding and roughly $175 million in international funding, with approximately $400 million of the total being offset. Finally, the CR provides full-year FY 2017 appropriations for military construction and for the VA Department, and is identical to the Military Construction-VA appropriations agreement reached in June between House and Senate conferees.

The White House earlier today announced its support for the CR/Zika package.

With that, the House and Senate have voted to keep the government open and operating until December 9th. The bill goes to the President’s desk to be signed, and Congress leaves town to go get reelected.