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Moody’s Tuition Survey Assumes New Norm

Declining enrollment, state tuition caps and affordability concerns are among the drivers of what Moody’s Investors Service is calling a “new normal” for U.S. colleges – minimal year-over-year growth in net tuition revenue, or the amount colleges make off tuition after distributing financial aid.

Moody’s said in its annual tuition survey that it expects last year’s 2-percent growth rate – the weakest in the survey’s history – to continue into the next academic year. About two in three public universities will see less than 3-percent growth in fiscal year 2016, though the financial impact will be partially offset by increased state funding.

Many private universities, meanwhile, are offering even higher discounts, with freshmen paying a little more than half of listed tuition. Less recognized colleges and those with niche markets, like law schools, facing the most pressure to keep prices low.

There’s also a geographic element to the new normal: While universities in the South and West are projecting stronger tuition revenue growth due to large and growing populations, lower high school graduation rates in the Northeast and Midwest have left those institutions more vulnerable.

International students could provide a financial buffer for some of those institutions. Those students comprise just 7 percent or so of U.S. college enrollment, but universities with strong national and global brands are still working to lure those who have the ability to pay full tuition.

What We’re Reading This Week, November 16-20

Here’s a selection of articles the Federal Relations team is reading this week.

Next Steps? – The Senate is having some issues moving forward with the Obamacare repeal. Read more at The Hill. 

Rolling Tide Lifts All Boats – University of Alabama has been a football powerhouse since the mid 1960s. First under legendary coach Bear Bryant and now under Coach Nick Sabin, the Crimson Tide football team earns nearly $95 million per year and is one of the best recruiting tools the university has for sports and academics. While the athletic department makes a tidy sum, the ancillary products and endorsement deals are truly where the revenue lies for the university, Tuscaloosa, and the state. Read more at The New York Times.  

Mismatches – NCAA head Mark Emmert caution colleges and universities about recruiting student athletes that were academic “mismatches”. Read more at USA Today. 

Clinton-type Money – Over the last 40 years in politics, Bill and Hillary Clinton have established a monumental network of donors and supporters in both high-monied and small individual donations. They’ve raised something to the tune of $3 billion. They have cultivated a vast network through charm, intellect, and personal interaction. How did they do it and who are these supporters? Read more in The Washington Post. 

Hoppe To It – Speaker Ryan’s new chief of staff, David Hoppe, is an old political hand, who eschews interviews, keeps his calm and agrees to disagree. His current job is helping herd cats — something he’s already experienced at working for Senator Trent Lott.  Read more in the Washington Post. 

Peace for Paris (jean jullien)

Roe v. Wade v. Texas – The Supreme Court has agreed to hear the latest challenge to abortion access. Two years ago, Texas passed legislation that severely limited who and where abortions could be provided. It catapulted Texas State Senator Wendy Davis, and her tennis shoes, in to the national spotlight. Now, the Supreme Court has agreed to hear a case challenging the restrictions. Read more from The Economist.

Geography Lesson – Presidential candidate Ben Carson’s campaign recently posted a map of all the states refusing to take in Syrian refugees. Unfortunately, he put some states in the wrong place. Read more at The Washington Post.

Nah… – Over a decade after the Attacks on 9/11, new information and correspondence has been declassified revealing the Bush Administration ignored detailed CIA warnings of an impending terrorist strike. Read more at Politico.

Missing Our Underestimation – Until the events of this week (Beirut, Paris, Egypt’s plan crash, and in March an attack in Yemen that killed 140) Western experts have routinely assumed ISIL efforts were successful in lone wolf attacks, and not as sophisticated at staging attacks like Al Quaeda. While we will learn a lot over the next weeks and months about the attacks, one immediate take away is that many in the West fundamentally misunderstood ISIL’s capabilities, behaviors and intentions. Read more at Politico.

Peace for Paris – The artist who created the much used and powerful Peace for Paris image, Jean Jullian, (see above) talks about creating the image minutes after hearing about the attacks in Paris. Read the story in Wired. 

Getting Here – How do refugees actually get into the United States? What is the actual process? Read about it at Vox. 

NY Times’s Table For Three series has a conversation with Gloria Steinem and the Notorious RBG.

What We’re Reading This Week, November 9-13

Happy Veterans Day Week! Here’s a selection of articles the Federal Relations team enjoyed this week.

First Gen – It’s a term that’s used often, “first generation” students, but who are these students and how are schools counting them? More at Inside Higher Education. 

Flying Fortress. (LOC)
Flying Fortress. (LOC)

Grounded – Speaker Paul Ryan has solicited a lot of information and has had a lot solicited from him as Speaker including a request from watchdog groups asking to end Members taking privately funded travel. Read more at Roll Call. 

POTUS? – When Paul Ryan agreed to run for Speaker, most understood this means that he’s put any presidential ambitions to rest because no Speaker of the House has been elected President except James Polk in 1844. Also it should be noted that, by the election, Polk had left the Speakership and was serving as Governor of Tennessee. So what’s Ryan’s long-term plan? Read more at The Hill.

Climate of Coal – Peabody coal, one of the nation’s largest coal companies, has been accused is misleading investors as to the impacts of climate change and the company’s bottom line. The allegation comes to light after a New York Attorney General’s investigation. Exxon Mobile is also being investigated for similar reasons. Read more at NPR.

Down On the Field & Out the Game – University of Missouri System President Tim Wolfe resigned and University of Missouri Columbia Chancellor Loftin Flowers agreed to step down on Monday after over a month of growing tensions with the Columbia student body. SB Nation covers what the Missouri football strike is all about. The final hit came from Wolfe’s blindside, when the Mizzou football team refused to play their next game in solidarity with the #concernedstudents1950 movement. Read how the football team cut the president at the Washington Post. Read the New York Times take.

Sweeping Effects – As the turmoil in Missouri keeps going, an associate professor offered his resignation, which was rejected, for holding class (and a test). The true outrage was his email to students saying that he wasn’t going to “give in to the bullies”. Students had questioned holding class because popular site YikYak had reports of shooters planning to kill black students. The individual who made the threats has been arrested (and was not in Columbia Missouri, where MU is located). Read more at NBC News. 

Can’t Take the Heat? – Current GOP front runner Dr. Ben Carson has begun pushing back against the significant scrutiny recently that comes with being the leading presidential candidate. Carson’s statements on the pyramids (they were used to store grain), his West Point full ride after a dinner with a general (he never applied so could never be offered such), or to the most recent dust up over if he stabbed someone (he apparently didn’t). Carson has charged that no other candidate has faced this much scrutiny and the Washington Post says challenge accepted. It goes through almost of the major political stories for both parties and goes back to the last presidential election. Read more at The Washington Post.   Side note, The Atlantic is tracking the bigger political gaffes happening this cycle at their Gaffe Track.

Senate on O-care – The Senate is preparing to take up a measure repealing Obamacare, and plans on sending the measure to the President’s desk (for an assured veto). Unfortunately, the Senate GOP conference is undecided on how far the measure should go. Read more at The Hil. 

Team Marco – Hill staff predict that Marco Rubio will be the Republican nomination for President. Read more at Roll Call. 

Google Doodle celebrated actress and scientist Hedy Lamarr’s 101st birthday this week with this doodle:

Ed Takes Aim at Accreditors

Today, Dept. of Education officials announced a series of actions centering on transparency in an effort to force accreditors to focus more on student outcomes and hold failing colleges accountable. For the most part, the accrediting agencies will not be required to change their practices. Instead, ED hopes to drive change by publishing and disseminating a wealth of information about accreditors and the colleges they oversee on a revamped department web page. One definite change accrediting agencies will have to makesubmitting decision letters – which the department will then publish online – when they put institutions on probation.

Read more at Politico. 

NDAA Passes in the House

Today the House voted 370-58 to pass the revised fiscal 2016 defense authorization measure (S 1356) under suspension of the rules, an expedited process that requires a two-thirds majority for passage. A vote to override the president’s veto was slated for Thursday, but scrapped in favor of the new bill after House and Senate negotiators worked out a series of cuts to conform to a revised defense budget top line.

Obama vetoed the initial defense authorization bill (HR 1735), citing the inclusion of $38 billion in extra Overseas Contingency Operations funds to sidestep discretionary spending caps. A two-year budget agreement (HR 1314), signed by the president Monday, raised defense and non-defense spending caps by $25 billion each in fiscal 2016. The agreement also includes an extra $8 billion this year for defense spending through OCO.

The policy provisions of the new measure are unchanged but the bill reflects $5 billion in cuts to programs to conform to the two-year budget agreement, which came up short of the president’s request, and the original NDAA topline of $612 billion.