November 13, 2000
Computer model adds to doubts about Palm Beach County election tally
A University of Washington scientist has used statistical modeling to determine that there was only a 1-in-10,000 chance that the vote total for Pat Buchanan in Palm Beach County, Fla., reflected voters’ actual intentions.
In a finding that could reinforce Democrats’ claims of balloting mistakes, the analysis by Michael Brett found that Buchanan received at least 1,499 more votes in the disputed county than could be statistically expected.
Using total votes cast, as well as the proportion of Democratic voters, the assistant professor in the UW department of civil and environmental engineering was able to predict the expected number of Buchanan votes in each county. He found a 99 percent likelihood that the Buchanan tally in Palm Beach County was at least 1,499 votes too high.
“It didn’t fit the pattern of all the other counties,” Brett said.
Although the unusually high vote count for Buchanan has been widely discussed, Brett was able to associate a probability with the magnitude of the overcount. According to the model, the likelihood that Buchanan would have obtained as many votes as he did in that county is 1 in 10,000.
Brett said he used a standard, two-variable regression approach to develop the model, common in all kinds of scientific analyses, to determine the probability of a voting error.
“Literally, it could be a homework problem for a sophomore-level stats class,” Brett said.
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For more information, contact Brett at (206) 616-3447, (206) 616-2549, (425) 402-6588 (home) or mtbrett@u.washington.edu. His analysis is posted at http://faculty.washington.edu/mtbrett/
