Adrian Raftery
August 25, 2022
‘Dangerous’ and ‘extremely dangerous’ heat stress to become more common by 2100
A new study projects the number of days with “dangerous” and “extremely dangerous” mixtures of heat and humidity by the end of this century. Even if global warming is limited to 2 degrees Celsius, results show that deadly heat waves will become much more common in the mid-latitudes, and many tropical regions will experience “dangerous” heat for about half the year.
July 26, 2021
Scientists model ‘true prevalence’ of COVID-19 throughout pandemic
Two University of Washington scientists have developed a statistical framework that incorporates key COVID-19 data — such as case counts and deaths due to COVID-19 — to model the true prevalence of this disease in the United States and individual states. Their approach, published the week of July 26 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, projects that in the U.S. as many as 60% of COVID-19 cases went undetected as of March 7, 2021, the last date for which the dataset they employed is available.
July 1, 2021
How long can a person live? The 21st century may see a record-breaker
A new University of Washington study calculates the probability of living past age 110, which, though rare, likely will increase this century.
February 9, 2021
Limiting warming to 2 C requires emissions reductions 80% above Paris Agreement targets
Even if all countries meet their Paris Agreement goals for reducing emissions, Earth has only a 5% chance of staying below 2 C warming this century, a previous study showed. But reductions about 80% more ambitious, or an average of 1.8% drop in emissions per year rather than 1% per year, would be enough to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal.
September 8, 2020
How birth control, girls’ education can slow population growth
Education and family planning have long been tied to lower fertility trends. But new research from the University of Washington analyzes those factors to determine, what accelerates a decline in otherwise high-fertility countries.
July 30, 2020
National Academies publishes guide to help public officials make sense of COVID-19 data
University of Washington professor Adrian Raftery is lead author on a National Academies guide to help officials interpret and understand different COVID-19 statistics and data sources as they make decisions about opening and closing schools, businesses and community facilities.
December 24, 2018
New global migration estimates show rates proportionally steady since 1990, high rate of return migration
Two University of Washington scientists have unveiled a new statistical method for estimating migration flows between countries. They show that rates of migration are higher than previously thought, but also relatively stable, fluctuating between 1.1 and 1.3 percent of global population from 1990 to 2015. In addition, since 1990 approximately 45 percent of migrants have returned to their home countries, a much higher estimate than other methods.
July 31, 2017
Earth likely to warm more than 2 degrees this century
A new UW statistical study shows only 5 percent chance that Earth will warm less than 2 degrees, what many see as a “tipping point” for climate, by the end of this century.
March 15, 2017
Adrian Raftery receives Ireland’s St. Patrick’s Day Medal for contributions to statistics
On March 15 at a ceremony in Washington, D.C., Prime Minister Enda Kenny of Ireland honored Adrian Raftery, a professor of statistics and sociology at the University of Washington, for his diverse contributions to the field of statistics. Kenny presented Raftery with the St. Patrick’s Day Medal, which is awarded each year by Science Foundation…
December 13, 2016
Studies of vulnerable populations get a ‘bootstrapped’ boost from statisticians
In a paper published online Dec. 7 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, University of Washington researchers report on a statistical approach called “tree bootstrapping” can help social scientists study hard-to-reach populations like drug users.
May 24, 2016
UW experts develop first method for including migration uncertainty in population projections
Statisticians at the University of Washington have developed the first model for projecting population that factors in the vagaries of migration, a slippery issue that has bedeviled demographers for decades. Their work, published online this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, also provides population projections for all countries worldwide — and…
September 18, 2014
World population to keep growing this century, hit 11 billion by 2100
A study by the UW and the United Nations finds that the number of people on Earth is likely to reach 11 billion by 2100, about 2 billion higher than widely cited previous estimates.
