Planning & Budgeting

October 7, 2024

September Revenue Forecast Flat for Current and 2025-27 Biennia 

The Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released its September revenue forecast on Friday, September 27, 2024. Revenue projections were relatively flat for the 2023-25 biennium as well as for the upcoming 2025-27 biennium.  

In June, we highlighted that experts expected revenue to fall from previous projections for the 2023-25 and 2025-27 biennia. This reduction was driven by declines in revenue collections from the State’s capital gains tax and sales tax.  

The September 2024 forecast notes that inflation is slowing but that Seattle-area consumer price inflation (CPI) continues to exceed the national average, with the seasonally adjusted CPI rising 3.1% compared to the 2.5% increase in the U.S. City Average index. With inflation slowing, the Federal Reserve recently reduced interest rates by half a percentage point. Additional rate cuts are expected later this year. However, current high interest rates, the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the Boeing machinist and dockworkers strikes all pose risks to the economy. 

Given these factors, the forecast projects that state revenue is expected to decrease by $49.2 million for the current 2023-25 biennium while increasing $79.1 million for the 2025-27 biennium compared to the June forecast. 

These small revisions are due to declines in expected revenue from the State’s sales tax. These declines are partially offset by positive revenue growth from the estate tax and real estate excise tax (REET) 

More background on the state revenue forecasts can be accessed on our website. 

Near General Fund-State 

Below is a summary of the total preliminary and projected Near General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue for each biennium.  

  • $66.48 billion for the 2023-25 biennium, 0.1% below the previous forecast. However, total revenue for this biennium is still forecasted to grow over the previous 2021-23 biennium.  
  • $71.61 billion for the 2025-27 biennium, 0.1% above the previous forecast.  

Some context behind the numbers for Near GF-S accounts from which the University receives funding: 

  • Forecasted revenue dedicated to the Workforce Education Investment Account (WEIA) has increased by $6.0 million for the 2023-25 biennia and increased by $8.5 million for the 2025-27 biennia. Forecasted WEIA revenue is now $885.8 million for the 2023-25 biennium and $952.3 million for the 2025-27 biennium.  
  • The forecast of Education Legacy Trust Account (ELTA) revenue has increased by $54.1 million in the 2023-25 biennium and increased by $96.9 million in the 2025-27 biennium. Forecasted ELTA revenue is now $2.04 billion for the 2023-25 biennium and $2.36 billion for the 2025-27 biennium.  

The next revenue forecast will be released in November and will inform the development of Governor Inslee’s 2025-27 biennial budget requests to the Legislature, the final of his term in office. Stay tuned to for updates on our 2025-27 state budget requests and the next state legislative session beginning in January 2025.