September 19, 2013

September Revenue Forecast Predicts Continued Gains

It is tempting to copy and paste our post from June’s revenue forecast into this one, as the September revenue forecast cites many of the same themes: continued federal budget instability, rising house prices in conjunction with possible interest rate hikes, and likely economic losses in Asia could disrupt the slow recovery currently underway. However, modest regional employment gains, an uptick in real estate excise tax revenue, and positive personal income growth propelled collections and revenue projections $345 million higher than June’s forecast for the current, 2013-15 biennium.

Interestingly, the 2011-13 biennium closed with an estimated positive variance, $23 million higher than the June forecast.

The Governor will base his 2013-15 supplemental budget on the November forecast, so continued revenue growth will be critical. As in June, the September
revenue forecast did not include tax collections related to the sale of cannabis.