Planning & Budgeting

July 19, 2018

July Economic & Revenue Update Indicates Continued Growth in Washington

Last month the Washington state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released their June revenue forecast. Cumulative major General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue collections were $189 million higher than the February revenue forecast.

Here is a quick summary of the total projected GF-S revenue for each biennium:

  • $45.288 billion, for the 2017-19 biennium, 16.0% more than the 2015-17 biennium
  • $49.363 billion, for the 2019-21 biennium, 9.0% more than the 2017-19 biennium
  • $53.170 billion, for the 2021-23 biennium, 7.7% more than the 2019-21 biennium

Some context behind the numbers:

  • Cumulative real estate excise taxes (REET) were $25 million (8.0%) higher than forecasted.
  • Revenue Act taxes, which consist of sales, use, business and occupation (B&O), utility and non-cigarette tobacco products, make up the bulk of the GF-S revenue. Collections were $131 million (2.7%) higher than forecasted.

In July the ERFC released an economic & revenue update that showed a further increase in GF-S revenue collections. Here is how this update compares:

  • GF-S revenue collections for June 11 through July 10 were $41.1 million (2.4%) above the June forecast.
  • Revenue Act tax collections for the current period were $39.3 million (3.0%) higher than the June forecast.

Washington continues to lead the country in personal income growth. The U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released state personal income estimates for the first quarter of 2018. These estimates showed Washington personal income rose to $434. 1 billion in the first quarter 2018 compared to $426.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2017. With 7.4% growth rate, Washington was the highest among the states and the District of Columbia.

Check back with the OPBlog in September for future updates on revenue forecasts.