Planning & Budgeting

November 14, 2018

September Revenue Forecast Shows Increased Revenue

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released their September revenue forecast. The projected Near General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue forecast for the 2017-19 biennium increased by $348 million. Projected revenue collections for the 2019-21 biennium increased by $443 million. The forecast expects higher personal income and employment than the June revenue forecast.

Here is a quick summary of the total projected Near GF-S revenue for each biennium:

  • $45.636 billion for the 2017-19 biennium, 16.9 percent more than the 2015-17 biennium
  • $49.806 billion for the 2019-21 biennium, 9.1 percent more than the 2017-19 biennium
  • $53.585 billion for the 2021-23 biennium, 7.6 percent more than the 2019-21 biennium

Some context behind the numbers:

  • Cumulative GF-S revenue collections from June 11 through September 10, 2018 were $147 million (3.0 percent) higher than forecasted in June.
  • Revenue Act taxes, which make up the bulk of GF-S revenue and include sales taxes, business and occupation taxes, and certain tobacco products, came in $137 million (3.3 percent) higher than forecasted.
  • The forecast expects Washington employment to grow 2.9 percent this year compared to 2.5 percent in the June forecast. The increase is primarily attributed to growing private services-providing sectors. Partially due to employment growth, personal income is also projected to be higher than the June forecast.

There will be one more revenue forecast this year, which will be released in November. The Governor will use the November forecast revenue estimates when crafting his proposed 2019-21 biennial budgets, which will be released in December.

Stay tuned to the OPBlog for updates on revenue forecasts and the upcoming 2019 legislative session!