Category: Revenue Forecast

Overview

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released its June revenue forecast on June 22, 2022. We noted in our previous blog post that the February revenue forecast showed continued economic growth, despite several challenges posed by emerging COVID-19 variants, supply chain disruptions, and rising inflation. COVID-19 case rates in Washington have since declined and remained relatively low; however, it was noted that the increase in the availability of home testing may impact the reliability of case numbers, given positive cases may not be officially reported. Inflation and interest rates have continued to rise since February, and the latest adjustments made by the Federal Reserve were reflected in this forecast. Despite these continued challenges, total state revenue projections increased by $1.5 billion in the 2021-23 biennium. This is an 18.9 percent increase over the 2019-21 biennium.

Washington has seen a positive variance of $590 million in collections, with most of the unforeseen increase resulting from Revenue Act tax collections. While growth in sales, B&O, real estate, and construction have bolstered revenue collections in the short term, long-term projections are less optimistic. Some of the increase in collections results from the ability of people and companies to maintain their level of real spending in the initial stages of an inflationary period, where taxable activity increases due to increased prices. This may not continue as the cost of goods continues to rise, and people and companies can no longer maintain their level of spending. While the fiscal growth for FY22 was significantly higher than previously forecasted, now at 11.6 percent, the fiscal growth for FY23 and beyond is significantly lower than we have seen in recent years (0.5 percent in FY23). Also of note, the Seattle-area consumer price inflation (CPI) outpaced the national average once again, rising 9.1 percent compared to the 8.2 percent nationally. Seattle home prices were also up 27.6 percent over the year, which set a record going back to the 2000-2001 period of growth.

It was noted that despite the strong growth in revenue collections, there are signs that growth is starting to slow, and there were several significant concerns noted about the direction the economy may be headed. In the U.S. forecast, both GDP and employment are now lower than expected, while in Washington state personal income and employment rates are lower than anticipated. The risks identified in this forecast also skew significantly towards the downside. Rising inflation, interest rates, and intensifying of the Ukraine-Russia conflict pose significant risks, including the potential to push the economy into a recession.

More background on state revenue forecasts is available in a 2019 blog post.

Near General Fund-State

Here is a quick summary of the total preliminary and projected Near General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue for each biennium:

• $63.1 billion for the 2021-23 biennium, 18.9 percent over the 2019-21 biennium.
• $66.0 billion for the 2023-25 biennium, 4.5 percent over the expected 2021-23 biennium.
• $70.2 billion for the 2025-27 biennium, 6.4 percent over the expected 2023-25 biennium.

Some context behind the numbers for Near GF-S accounts from which the University receives funding:

• Forecasted revenue dedicated to the Work Force Education Investment Account (WEIA) has been increased by $81 million in the 2021-23 biennium and $56 million in the 2023-25 biennium. Forecasted WEIA revenue is now $766 million for the 2021-23 biennium, $809 million for the 2023-25 biennium, and $851 million for the 2025-27 biennium.
• The forecast of Education Legacy Trust Account (ELTA) revenue was increased by $80 million in the 2021-23 biennium and $21 million in the 2023-25 biennium. Forecasted ELTA revenue is now $1.8 billion for the 2021-23 biennium, $2.1 billion for the 2023-25 biennium, and $2.3 billion for the 2025-27 biennium.

This latest revenue forecast will be considered as the University of Washington prepares to submit its 2023-25 biennial budget requests to the legislature this September. These requests will build upon investments made in the 2022 supplemental budget, prioritizing several needs across our three campuses.

The next state revenue forecast will be released in September. Stay tuned to the OPBlog for updates on 2023-25 state budget requests and the next state legislative session in January 2023.

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released its February revenue forecast on February 16, 2022. We noted in our previous blog post that the November revenue forecast showed continued economic growth, despite rising COVID-19 cases, supply chain disruptions, and rising inflation. In Washington state, the COVID-19 case rates are now steadily declining from the recent surge in December resulting from the emergence of the Omicron variant. While rising inflation and oil prices, the threat of new and emerging COVID-19 variants, and geopolitical instability pose ever-present risks to revenue forecasting, total state revenues are expected to grow 16.1 percent between the 2019-21 and 2021-23 biennia, and 6.0 percent between the 2021-23 and 2023-25 biennia.

GDP and employment numbers remain relatively unchanged since the November forecast; however, Washington has seen a positive variance of $452 million in collections, due to stronger than anticipated personal income growth, stronger residential construction and construction employment, and stronger-than-expected growth in retail sales and real estate transactions. These factors combined with the continued rise in inflation, have all contributed to an increase of $1.45 billion for the current biennium (2021-23), and $1.32 billion for the next biennium (2023-2025).

More background on state revenue forecasts is available in a 2019 blog post.

Near General Fund-State

Here is a quick summary of the total preliminary and projected Near General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue for each biennium:

• $61.7 billion for the 2021-23 biennium, 16.1 percent over the 2019-21 biennium.
• $65.4 billion for the 2023-25 biennium, 6.0 percent over the expected 2021-23 biennium.
• $70.0 billion for the 2025-27 biennium, 7.1 percent over the expected 2023-25 biennium.

Some context behind the numbers for Near GF-S accounts from which the University receives funding:

• Forecasted revenue dedicated to the Workforce Education Investment Account (WEIA) has been increased by $6 million in the 2021-23 biennium and $5 million in the 2023-25 biennium. Forecasted WEIA revenue is now $684 million for the 2021-23 biennium, $753 million for the 2023-25 biennium, and $831 million for the 2025-27 biennium.
• The forecast of Education Legacy Trust Account (ELTA) revenue was increased by $56 million in the 2021-23 biennium and $2 million in the 2023-25 biennium. Forecasted ELTA revenue is now $1.7 billion for the 2021-23 biennium, $2.1 billion for the 2023-25 biennium, and $2.3 billion for the 2025-27 biennium.

This latest revenue forecast will be considered by the Washington state legislature as they prepare to finalize their 2022 supplemental budget proposals in the coming days. These proposals make adjustments to the enacted 2021-23 biennial budget. They follow previous proposals from Governor Inslee, who proposed significant investments in affordable housing, climate and clean energy, protection and restoration of salmon habitats, increases to K-12 learning support, as well as some initiatives that impact the University.

The next state revenue forecast will be released in June. Stay tuned to the OPBlog for updates on the 2022 supplemental budget proposals and the legislative session!

Overview

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released its November revenue forecast on November 19. We noted in our previous blog post that the September revenue forecast showed continued economic growth in the face of rising COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. In Washington state, the COVID-19 case rate is down from the recent peak in September; however, there is a continued risk of emerging variants and another winter surge. The COVID-19 pandemic remains an ever-present risk for Washingtonians’ health and safety and continues to pose challenges for the state’s economic recovery and growth. Additionally, there are growing concerns over continued disruptions to supply chains and extraordinary inflation increases. Seattle-area consumer price inflation (CPI) outpaced the national average. From October 2020 to October 2021, the seasonally adjusted Seattle CPI rose 6.5 percent compared to the 6.2 percent increase in the U.S. City Average index. Despite these uncertainties, the November revenue forecast showed that the state taxable activity was much stronger than expected, and the Council increased revenue totals in the current biennium (2021-23) by $1.06 billion ahead of the 2022 state legislative session.

Before we dig into the numbers, more background on state revenue forecasts is available in a 2019 blog post.

General Fund State

Per the November revenue forecast, the final total of General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue for the 2019-21 biennium was $50.803 billion, unchanged from the September estimate. The GF-S has been increased by $1.06 billion in the 2021-23 biennium and $944 million in the 2023-25 biennium. Forecasted GF-S revenue is now $57.519 billion for the 2021-23 biennium and $60.864 billion for the 2023-25 biennium.

Near General Fund-State

As a reminder, Near GF-S includes revenue from the GF-S, the Education Legacy Trust Account (ELTA), Workforce Education Investment Account (WEIA), and Opportunity Pathways Account (OPA). Summing the changes to the Near GF-S forecasts, total state revenue subject to the budget outlook process was $40 million lower than expected in the 2019-21 biennium, unchanged from the September estimate given that the biennium is now closed. Forecasted revenue has increased by $898 million in the 2021-23 biennium and $965 million in the 2023-25 biennium.

Here is a quick summary of the total preliminary and projected Near GF-S revenue for each biennium:

• $53.132 billion for the 2019-21 biennium, 15.3 percent higher than the 2017-19 biennium.
• $60.238 billion for the 2021-23 biennium, 13.4 percent over the 2019-21 biennium.
• $64.047 billion for the 2023-25 biennium, 6.3 percent over the expected 2021-23 biennium.

Some context behind the numbers for Near GF-S accounts from which the University receives funding:

• The final total of revenue dedicated to WEIA in the 2019-21 biennium was unchanged at $352 million. Forecasted revenue has been increased by $10 million in the 2021-23 biennium and $11 million in the 2023-25 biennium. Forecasted WEIA revenue is now $678 million for the 2021-23 biennium and $748 million for the 2023-25 biennium.
• The final total of ELTA revenue for the 2019-21 biennium was unchanged at $1.639 billion. The forecast was decreased by $179 million in the 2021-23 biennium and $44 million in the 2023-25 biennium, due to decreases in forecasted capital gains taxes. Forecasted ELTA revenue is now $1.687 billion for the 2021-23 biennium and $2.082 billion for the 2023-25 biennium.

The Governor will use these November forecast revenue estimates when crafting his proposed 2022 supplemental operating budget, which will be released in December. The supplemental operating budget will amend the enacted 2021-23 biennial budget approved during the 2021 legislative session. The Governor’s budget release is the first step in the budget process for the upcoming 2022 legislative session, which begins on January 10 and lasts 60 days.

Stay tuned to the OPBlog for updates on the upcoming 2022 legislative session!

Overview

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released their September revenue forecast on September 24. The last revenue forecast, released in June, showed promising signs of a full economic recovery. At that time, the number of COVID-19 cases in Washington state was declining. However, as noted in our previous blog post, risks remained and our post cautioned that more infectious COVID-19 variants could emerge. Over the last three months, the COVID-19 Delta variant has surged through Washington state, with average-daily case totals and hospitalization rates surpassing the previous three waves. Despite this challenge, the September revenue forecast showed overall, continued economic growth. While the latest forecast does show a revenue shortfall in the 2019-21 biennium, the Council did also increase revenue totals in the current biennium (2021-23) by nearly a billion dollars ($927 million). This is encouraging news as we approach the upcoming legislative session.

Before we dig into the numbers, more background on state revenue forecasts is available in a 2019 blog post.

General Fund-State

Per the September revenue forecast, the preliminary total of General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue for the 2019-21 biennium, which ended June 30, 2021, is $45 million lower than forecast in June. The shortfall was due to both an underperformance in Revenue Act taxes (including retail sales and use, business and occupation, public utility, and non-cigarette tobacco products) in May activity and a higher-than-expected amount of those taxes arriving too late to be tabulated before the end of the fiscal year. However, those late taxes subsequently added to revenues for the current biennium (2021-23). The GF-S forecast has been increased by $845 million in the 2021-23 biennium and $891 million in the 2023-25 biennium. The preliminary total of GF-S revenue for the 2019-21 biennium is $50.803 billion. Forecasted GF-S revenue is now $56.457 billion for the 2021-23 biennium and $59.870 billion for the 2023-25 biennium.

Near General Fund-State

As a reminder, Near GF-S includes revenue from the GF-S, the Education Legacy Trust Account (ELTA), Workforce Education Investment Account (WEIA), and Opportunity Pathways Account (OPA). Summing the changes to the Near GF-S forecasts, total state revenue subject to the budget outlook process was $40 million lower than expected in the 2019-21 biennium. Forecasted revenue has increased by $927 million in the 2021-23 biennium and $931 million in the 2023-25 biennium.

Here is a quick summary of the total preliminary and projected Near GF-S revenue for each biennium:

• $53.132 billion for the 2019-21 biennium, 15.3 percent higher than the 2017-19 biennium.
• $59.341 billion for the 2021-23 biennium, 11.7 percent over the expected 2019-21 biennium.
• $63.082 billion for the 2023-25 biennium, 6.3 percent over the expected 2021-23 biennium.

Some context behind the numbers for Near GF-S accounts from which the University receives funding:

• The preliminary total of revenue dedicated to WEIA in the 2019-21 biennium is $352 million, $5 million lower than the June forecast. Forecasted revenue has been increased by $8 million in the 2021-23 biennium and $9 million in the 2023-25 biennium. Forecasted WEIA revenue is now $668 million for the 2021-23 biennium and $737 million for the 2023-25 biennium.
• The preliminary total of ELTA revenue for the 2019-21 biennium is $1.639 billion, $9 million higher than the June forecast. The forecast was increased $73 million in the 2021-23 biennium and $31 million in the 2023-25 biennium, due mainly to increases in REET. Forecasted ELTA revenue is now $1.866 billion for the 2021-23 biennium and $2.125 billion for the 2023-25 biennium.
• The preliminary total of revenue dedicated to the OPA for the 2019-21 biennium is $337 million, $1 million higher than the June forecast. The forecast was increased by $1 million in the 2021- 23 biennium and decreased by $1 million in the 2023-25 biennium. Forecasted OPA revenue is now $349 million for the 2021-23 biennium and $350 million for the 2023-25 biennium.

The Governor will use the November forecast revenue estimates when constructing his proposed 2022 supplemental operating budget, which will amend the enacted 2021-23 biennial budget.

Stay tuned to the OPBlog for updates as we begin planning for the 2022 legislative session!

Overview

The June revenue forecast again builds on the promising economic recovery we have seen in recent months. As a reminder, the June 2020 Revenue Forecast, released by the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC), forecasted a precipitous economic decline as a result of the full shutdown in spring and early summer. While the September Revenue Forecast and the November Revenue Forecast demonstrated significant recovery from June estimates, deficits remained. Fortunately, both the March 2021 forecast and today’s June Revenue Forecast have shown a full recovery and signs of promising growth into the future.

More background on state revenue forecasts is available here.

The General Fund – State (GF-S) revenue forecast has been increased by $807.6 million in the current 2019-21 biennium and $1.239 billion in the upcoming 2021-23 biennium. Forecasted GF-S revenue is now $50.848 billion for the current biennium, $55.611 billion for the 2021-23 biennium and $58.979 billion for the 2023-25 biennium. Revenue increases are due to increased taxable economic activity in the state, especially in terms of retail sales and higher than expected real estate excise tax (REET) collections.

However, some risks due to COVID-19 remain. Worldwide, more infectious COVID-19 variants have led to increased COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations – including in regions with high vaccination rates. Slow supply chain recovery and growth in labor supply has lead to higher than expected inflation.

Near General-Fund
As a reminder, Near GF-S includes revenue from the Education Legacy Trust Account (ELTA), Workforce Education Investment Account (WEIA), and Opportunity Pathways Account (OPA). Summing the changes to the Near GF-S forecasts, total state revenue subject to the budget outlook process is forecasted to increase by $838 million in the 2019-21 biennium, $1.798 billion in the 2021-23 biennium and $2.246 billion in the 2023-25 biennium. These amounts reflect the following increases based on previous amounts:

• $53.17 billion for the 2019-21 biennium, 15.4 percent over the expected 2017-19 biennium.
• $58.41 billion for the 2021-23 biennium, 9.9 percent over the expected 2019-21 biennium.
• $62.15 billion for the 2023-25 biennium, 6.4 percent over expected 2021-23 biennium.

Some context behind the numbers for Near GF-S accounts from which the University receives funding:

• Forecasted revenue dedicated to the WEIA was increased by $12 million in the 2019-21 biennium, $35 million in the 2021-23 biennium and $7 million in the 2023-25 biennium. Forecasted WEIA revenue is now $358 million for the 2019-21 biennium, $661 million for the 2021-23 biennium and $728 million for the 2023-25 biennium.
• The ELTA forecast for the 2019-21 biennium was increased by $2 million. Forecasted ELTA revenue in future biennia has been greatly increased by the newly passed tax on certain capital gains of $250,000 or more.
  • The tax will be first collected in FY23, based on calendar year 2022 taxable gains. The first $500 million of the tax gets transferred to ELTA, with the minimum transfer increasing each year with inflation. The ELTA share of the tax is forecasted at $500 million for the 2021- 23 biennium and $1.028 billion for the 2023-25 biennium. The total forecast increase for the 2021-23 biennium is $506 million and the forecast increase for the 2023-25 biennium is $1.022 billion. Forecasted ELTA revenue is now $1.630 billion for the 2019-21 biennium and $1.793 billion for the 2021-23 biennium. Forecasted ELTA revenue for the 2023-25 biennium is now $2.094 billion.

Stay tuned to the OPBlog for updates as we close out the 2019-21 biennium and begin planning for the 2022 legislative session.

The COVID-19 pandemic drastically changed the economic outlook in Washington state. The June 2020 Revenue Forecast, released by the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC), forecasted a precipitous economic decline as a result of the full shutdown in spring and early summer. While the September Revenue Forecast and the November Revenue Forecast demonstrated significant recovery from June estimates, deficits remained. Fortunately, the March 2021 forecast, released Wednesday, shows a full recovery, essentially returning the state revenue forecast to pre-pandemic levels. More background on state revenue forecasts is available in a 2019 blog post.

The March General Fund – State (GF-S revenue) forecast has been increased by $1.244 billion in the current biennium and $1.894 billion in the next. According to a press release from Governor Inslee, this increase in projected revenues would leave the state with a net surplus of nearly $3 billion — including reserves — at the end of current biennium. The March revenue forecast is still $570 million lower than the pre-pandemic February 2020 forecast in the current biennium, which was used as a basis for the current 2019-21 biennial operating budget. However, Governor Inslee vetoed a significant amount of that spending last April, likely offsetting some of that deficit.

The November 2020 forecast assumed that no additional federal pandemic relief funds would be forthcoming. Revenue collections have greatly exceeded expectations. The forecast cited federal stimulus approved in December and March along with strong real estate market activity, strong retail sales recovery, and faster than expected vaccine distribution, as factors influencing the positive forecast. Downsides included slower than expected employment growth, weakened business (for restaurants, bars, arts and entertainment, travel, etc.), as well as rising oil and gas prices.

Here is a quick summary of the total projected Near General Fund-State (Near GF-S) revenue for each biennium. As a reminder, Near GF-S includes revenue from the Education Legacy Trust Account (ELTA), Workforce Education Investment Account (WEIA), and Opportunity Pathways Account (OPA).

• $52.334 billion for the 2019-21 biennium, 13.6 percent over the expected 2017-19 biennium.
• $56.615 billion for the 2021-23 biennium, 8.2 percent over the expected 2019-21 biennium.
• $59.906 billion for the 2023-25 biennium, 5.8 percent over expected 2021-23 biennium.

Some context behind the numbers for Near-GF-S accounts from which the University receives funding:

• Forecasted revenue dedicated to the Workforce Education Investment Account (WEIA) was increased by $2 million in the 2019-21 biennium and $21 million in the 2021-23 biennium. The forecast was increased by $25 million in the 2023-25 biennium. Forecasted WEIA revenue is now $345 million for the 2019-21 biennium, $626 million for the 2021-23 biennium and $721 million for the 2023-25 biennium.
• Forecasted Education Legacy Trust Account (ELTA) revenue for the 2019-21 biennium increased by $74 million, due to higher REET and estate tax receipts. The forecast for the 2021-23 biennium increased by $24 million and the forecast for the 2023-25 biennium increased by $17 million. Forecasted ELTA revenue is now $1.628 billion for the 2019-21 biennium and $1.286 billion for the 2021- 23 biennium. Forecasted ELTA revenue for the 2023-25 biennium is $1.072 billion.

The House and Senate will use these revenue estimates when crafting their proposed 2021-23 biennial operating budgets, which will be released in the coming weeks along with capital budget proposals.

Stay tuned to the OPBlog for updates on budget proposals, approved legislation, and COVID-19 pandemic emergency funding as we close out the remainder of the 2021 legislative session, which is scheduled to end on April 25.

The COVID-19 pandemic has drastically changed the economic outlook in Washington state. The June Revenue Forecast, released by the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC), forecasted a precipitous economic decline as a result of the full shutdown in spring and early summer. Fortunately, the September Revenue Forecast and the November Revenue Forecast, released Wednesday, have shown a significant recovery from June estimates. More background on the state revenue forecast is available in a 2019 blog post.

It is important to note that it is unclear if this revenue forecast will fully account for the impacts of the most recent “wave” of COVID cases, and the economic restrictions that were enacted on November 16 as a result. Given that we cannot be sure how long the heightened cases and associated restrictions will be a reality, it is difficult to determine the full economic impact.

Compared to the September forecast, the November General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue forecast has been increased by $607 million in the 2019-21 biennium, $297 million in the 2021-23, biennium, and $16 million for the 2023-25 biennium.

Despite the promising forecasts detailed in the most recent reports, the GF-S forecast is still significantly lower than what we saw in the February, pre-COVID forecast. The November GF-S forecast is $1.8 billion lower than the February 2020 forecast for the 2019-21 biennium, $1.8 billion lower for the 2021-23 biennium, and $2.0 billion lower for the 2023-25 biennium. As a reminder, the February forecast was what was used to amend the current 2019-21 biennial state budget.

Here is a quick summary of the total projected Near General Fund-State (Near GF-S) revenue for each biennium. As a reminder, Near GF-S includes revenue from the Education Legacy Trust Account (ELTA), Workforce Education Investment Account (WEIA), and Opportunity Pathways Account (OPA).

• $50.995 billion for the 2019-21 biennium, 10.7 percent over the expected 2017-19 biennium.
• $54.666 billion for the 2021-23 biennium, 7.2 percent over the expected 2019-21 biennium.
• $58.007 billion for the 2023-25 biennium, 6.1 percent over expected 2021-23 biennium.

Some context behind the numbers:

• Cumulative major General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue collections from September 11 through November 10, 2020 came in $380 million above the September forecast.
• Forecasted revenue dedicated to the Workforce Education Investment Account (WEIA) was increased by $5 million in the 2019-21 biennium and $4 million in the 2021-23 biennium. The forecast was decreased by $4 million in the 2023-25 biennium. Forecasted WEIA revenue is now $343 million for the 2019-21 biennium and $605 million for the 2021-23 biennium.
• Forecasted Education Legacy Trust Account (ELTA) revenue for the 2019-21 biennium increased by $19 million, due mainly to higher Real Estate Excise Tax (REET) receipts. The forecast for the 2021-23 biennium increased by $22 million and the forecast for the 2023-25 biennium increased by $14 million, due to increases in both REET and estate tax forecasts. Forecasted ELTA revenue is now $1.554 billion for the 2019-21 biennium and $1.262 billion for the 2021-23 biennium.

The Governor will use these November forecast revenue estimates when crafting his proposed 2021-23 biennial operating budget, which will be released in December. The Governor’s budget release is the first step in the budget process for the upcoming 2021 legislative session, which begins on January 11 and lasts 105 days. An additional revenue forecast in March will guide legislative leadership as they develop budget proposals during the session.

Stay tuned to the OPBlog for updates on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the upcoming 2021 legislative session!

The COVID-19 pandemic has drastically changed the economic outlook in Washington state. Fortunately, September Revenue Forecast, released yesterday by the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC), details modest growth. This stands in stark contrast to the June Revenue Forecast, which forecasted a precipitous economic decline as a result of the full shutdown throughout spring and early summer.

The September GF-S revenue forecast has been increased by $2.1 billion in the current biennium and $2.2 billion in the next. The forecast of GF-S revenue for the 2023-25 biennium has increased by $2.5 billion. This still leaves the GF-S forecast $2.4 billion lower than the February 2020 forecast for the current biennium, $2.1 billion for the next biennium and $2.0 billion for the 2023-25 biennium. Importantly, the February forecast was used as the basis for the current biennial budget, so the state is effectively facing a $2.4 billion deficit in FY21 that will need to be resolved. The September forecast, however, is a drastic improvement from the nearly $9 billion total deficit forecasted in the current and next biennia in the June Revenue Forecast.

Forecasted GF-S revenue is now $48.189 billion for the current biennium and $52.181 billion for the 2021-23 biennium. Forecasted GF-S revenue is $55.917 billion for the 2023-25 biennium.

Here is a quick summary of the total projected Near GF-S revenue for each biennium:

• $50.022 billion for the 2019-21 biennium, 8.6 percent more than the 2017-19 biennium
• $53.737 billion for the 2021-23 biennium, 7.4 percent more than the 2019-21 biennium
• $57.28 billion for the 2023-25 biennium, 6.6 percent over expected 2021-23 biennium

More background on the state revenue forecast is available in a 2019 blog post. Some context behind the numbers:

Washington state:

• Cumulative major General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue collections from June 11 through September 10, 2020 came in $963 million above the June forecast. Although these collections were above the June forecast, collections for February 11 through September 10 were $840 million less than forecasted in February.
• Forecasted revenue dedicated to the Workforce Education Investment Account (WEIA) was increased by $17 million in the 2019-21 biennium and $30 million in the 2021-23 biennium. Forecasted WEIA revenue is now $339 million for the 2019-21 biennium and $601 million for the 2021-23 biennium. Forecasted WEIA revenue for the 2023-25 biennium is now $700 million
• Forecasted Education Legacy Trust Account (ELTA) revenue for the 2019-21 biennium increased by $164 million, due to both higher real estate excise tax receipts and higher estate tax receipts. The forecast for the 2021-23 biennium increased by $149 million and the forecast for the 2023-25 biennium increased by $125 million. Forecasted ELTA revenue is now $1.535 billion for the 2019-21 biennium and $1.241 billion for the 2021-23 biennium. Forecasted ELTA revenue for the 2023-25 biennium is $1.041 billion.
• Employment continued to rise in June, July, and August following the historic decline in March and April. As of August, the state’s economy has recovered nearly half the jobs lost in March and April.

Given the promising numbers in this revenue forecast, we do not anticipate a special legislative session before the regularly scheduled 2021 session. The Governor will use the November forecast revenue estimates when crafting his proposed 2021-23 biennial budget proposal. Stay tuned to the OPBlog for updates on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the upcoming 2021 legislative session!