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Economic and Revenue Forecast Council Releases April Budget Outlook

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On Thursday, April 30, the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council met to review and approve the April 2020 budget outlook. The budget outlook used the February revenue forecast and contained no major changes to revenues or appropriations for the 2019-21 biennium. During their meeting, the Council acknowledged that there will likely be changes to the revenue forecast in June, but declined to speculate on the size of the impact.

In preparation for Thursday’s meeting, Council Chair Rep. Ed Orcutt requested that staff prepare an unofficial revenue forecast. The Seattle Times reported that, “preliminary numbers show Washington could lose $7 billion in state revenue through 2023 as the coronavirus pandemic takes its toll.” The unofficial forecast is “based on assumptions and come with ‘substantial uncertainty’ given state tax data isn’t yet available for March and April.”

The state’s rainy day fund is approximately $2.5 billion. It is likely that the legislature will convene after the official revenue forecast in June to adjust appropriations in the current biennium.

More background on the state revenue forecast is available here. OPB will provide updates on this blog in the event of a special legislative session, so stay tuned.

February Revenue Forecast Shows Continued Growth

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The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released their February revenue forecast on February 19. The projected Near General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue forecast increased by $606 million for the 2019-21 biennium and by $536 million for the 2021-23 biennium. The report projects higher than forecasted revenue compared to the November revenue forecast.

Here is a quick summary of the total projected Near GF-S revenue for each biennium:

  • $52.339 billion for the 2019-21 biennium, 13.6 percent more than the 2017-19 biennium
  • $55.690 billion for the 2021-23 biennium, 6.4 percent more than the 2019-21 biennium
  • $59.176 billion for the 2023-25 biennium, 6.3 percent over expected 2021-23 biennium

More background on the state revenue forecast is available here.

Some context behind the numbers:

Washington state:

  • Revenue collections have been higher than forecasted in November. Cumulative major GF-S revenue collections from November 11, 2019 through February 10, 2020 were $162 million above the forecast. About $90 million of the collections surplus came from a larger-than-expected spike in real estate activity ahead of the January 1 increase in real estate excise tax (REET) rates on property worth more than $1.56 million.
  • Cumulative Revenue Act taxes (retail sales and use, business and occupation, public utility and non-cigarette tobacco products taxes), which make up the bulk of GF-S revenue, were $64 million (1.4 percent) higher than forecasted.
  • Forecasted Education Legacy Trust Account (ELTA) revenue for the 2019-21 biennium increased by $310 million, mainly due to higher-than-forecasted estate tax receipts.

Local:

  • Seattle-area home prices rose over the year for a fourth consecutive month in November following year-over-year declines in the previous four months. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, seasonally adjusted Seattle home prices increased 0.8 percent in November. Because of the strong growth in the last five months, November Seattle home prices were up 3.3 percent over the year. In comparison, the composite-20 index was up 2.5 percent over the year.
  • Seattle-area consumer price inflation slightly trailed the national average in December despite above average shelter cost inflation. From December 2018 to December 2019, the Seattle CPI rose 2.2 percent compared to a 2.3 percent increase in the U.S. City Average.

The legislature will use revenue estimates from this forecast when crafting the proposed 2020 supplemental operating budget, which will amend the enacted 2019-21 biennial budget. These proposals follow previous proposals from Governor Jay Inslee. A subsequent compromise budget will be released in the coming weeks.

Stay tuned to the OPBlog for updates on the 2020 supplemental budget proposals and the legislative session!

November Revenue Forecast Shows Increased Revenue, but Slowing Growth

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The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released their November revenue forecast on November 20. The final tabulation of Near General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue for the 2017-19 biennium was $46.081 billion, $5 million less than estimated in September. Projected revenue collections increased by $299 million for the 2019-21 biennium and by $181 million for the 2021-23 biennium. The report projects similar growth to the September revenue forecast.

Here is a quick summary of the total projected Near GF-S revenue for each biennium:

  • $51.733 billion for the 2019-21 biennium, 12.3 percent more than the 2017-19 biennium
  • $55.154 billion for the 2021-23 biennium, 6.6 percent more than the 2019-21 biennium

More background on the state revenue forecast is available here.

Some context behind the numbers:

Washington state:

  • Revenue collections have been higher than forecasted in September. Cumulative major General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue collections from September 11 through November 10, 2019 were $135 million above the forecast. Much of this surplus, however, came from transfers of unclaimed property into the GF-S, which were $47 million higher than forecasted in October.
  • Cumulative Revenue Act taxes (retail sales and use, business and occupation, public utility and non-cigarette tobacco products taxes), which make up the bulk of General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue, were $50 million (1.7 percent) higher than forecasted.
  • Cumulative real estate excise taxes (REET) came in $22 million (11.8 percent) higher than forecasted. Large commercial sales spiked while residential sales activity remained close to forecasted levels.
  • Over half of the increase in forecasted GF-S revenue for the current biennium and the bulk of the increase for the next biennium came from property tax collections. These increases stemmed from a revised estimate of the market value of the existing stock of taxable property, which will determine the level of the calendar year 2020 levy. The increase in estimated market value will increase the levy for next year as well as the following years. The revised valuation, combined with other forecast changes, has resulted in a forecast increase of $147 million for the current biennium and $177 million for the 2021-23 biennium.

Local:

  • Seattle area home prices rose over the year for the first time in five months. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, seasonally adjusted Seattle area home prices increased 0.5 percent in August while the composite-20 index declined 0.2 percent. Seattle home prices increased 0.5 percent in July as well. Because of the growth in the last two months, Seattle home prices are up 0.7 percent over the year.
  • Seattle area consumer price inflation slightly outpaced the national average in October. From October 2018 to October 2019, the Seattle CPI rose 2.2 percent compared to a 1.8 percent increase in the U.S. City Average.

Governor Jay Inslee will use revenue estimates from this forecast when crafting his proposed 2020 supplemental operating budget, which will amend the enacted 2019-21 biennial budget. The Governor’s budget release is the first step in the budget process for the upcoming 2020 legislative session, which begins in January.

Stay tuned to the OPBlog for updates on the 2020 supplemental budget proposals and the legislative session!

Background on the State Revenue Forecast

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The Office of Planning & Budgeting (OPB) publishes a summary of the state’s quarterly revenue forecasts. This primer provides background on revenue forecast reports, including helpful information about how to interpret and understand their contents.

Who produces the report?

The Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) produces the revenue forecast, and is comprised of both bipartisan legislative and executive members and the State Treasurer.

What does the revenue forecast show?

The quarterly revenue forecast seeks to predict how much tax revenue (or income) will be remitted to Washington state during the given timeframe. This includes funding projections from a variety of sources, including income, property, estate, and sales taxes. Since revenue from these sources is affected by other economic factors (employment, income, home prices, etc.) the forecast generally includes a wider conversation on the health of national, state, and local economies.

Why is it helpful?

Washington state is unique in this approach to revenue forecasting in that the forecast is nonpartisan and is used by both the executive and legislative branches in budget preparation. The Governor uses the November forecast to inform their proposed budgets to the legislature, and the legislature uses the February forecast to inform their final budget recommendations. It is helpful for the UW to monitor the report, as changes in state revenue may be tied to changes in appropriations to the University as part of the state budgeting process.

What accounts support the University of Washington?

  • Near General Fund – State (NGF-S): The combination of the State General Fund, Education Legacy Trust Account, and Opportunity Pathways Account.
    • General Fund – State (GF-S): Created in 1907, the general fund serves to account for all financial resources of the state except those required to be accounted for in another fund. The general fund is the principal state fund supporting the operation of the state. It is funded through taxes, federal grants-in-aid, charges and miscellaneous revenue, licenses, permits, fees and interest income. The vast majority of state funding for the University comes from GF-S.
    • Education Legacy Trust Account (ELTA): Created in 2005, this account can be used only for support of the K-12 schools, and for expanding access to higher education through funding for new enrollments, financial aid, and other educational improvement efforts. The ELTA is funded through estate taxes and interest earnings.
    • Opportunity Pathways Account (OPA): Created in 2010, this account is intended for the recruitment of entrepreneurial researchers, innovation partnership zones, research teams, early childhood education, higher education grants and scholarship programs, and charter schools. This is funded through lottery revenue.
  • Workforce Education Investment Account: Created in 2019, the Workforce Education Investment account can be used only for higher education programs, higher education operations, higher education compensation, and state-funded student aid programs. The Account is funded through a business and occupation tax on large technology companies, called the “workforce education investment surcharge.”
  • Other accounts: The University receives several appropriations from special state appropriated accounts that are not as visible or contemplated at all in the revenue forecast. These include amounts for the School of Public Health Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences (DEOHS) (Accident and Medical Aid Accounts), funding for marijuana research and education (Dedicated Marijuana Account), funding for ocean acidification and management research (Biotoxin Account, Aquatic Lands Enhancement Account), and to support aerospace initiatives (Economic Development Strategic Reserve Account).

 

September Revenue Forecast Indicates Slowing, but Continued Growth

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The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released their September revenue forecast. The projected Near General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue forecast for the 2017-19 biennium increased by $27 million. Projected revenue collections for the 2019-21 biennium increased by $447 million, decreased by $63 million for the 2021-23 biennium. The report projects similar growth to the June revenue forecast.

Here is a quick summary of the total projected Near GF-S revenue for each biennium:

  • $46.086 billion for the 2017-19 biennium, 18.0 percent more than the 2015-17 biennium
  • $51.435 billion for the 2019-21 biennium, 11.6 percent more than the 2017-19 biennium
  • $54.973 billion for the 2021-23 biennium, 6.9 percent more than the 2019-21 biennium

Some context behind the numbers:

Washington state:

  • The June forecast included an $85 million transfer of property tax from the GF-S into the Education Legacy Trust Account (ELTA) in Fiscal Year (FY) 2019. While some of this transfer did occur in June 2019, $84 million of the transfer occurred in July 2019, the first month of FY20. This increased the preliminary cash estimate of GF-S revenue for the 2017-19 biennium by $84 million above the June forecast and decreased the forecast for the 2019-21 biennium by the same amount.
  • The preliminary estimate of GF-S revenue for the 2017-19 biennium, which ended June 30, 2019, is $44.144 billion, which is $102 million higher than forecasted in June. Absent the abovementioned delayed transfer, however, collections would have been $18 million higher than forecasted.
  • While the September economic forecast was very similar to the June forecast, expected Revenue Act collections have increased in the current 2019-21 biennium due to their recent strength. Expected slower growth in the 2021-23 biennium, however, has slightly reduced expected Revenue Act collections in that period.
  • Washington’s unemployment rate remained at 4.6 percent in August for a fourth consecutive month. The state’s unemployment rate remains near its all-time low of 4.4 percent last reached in October 2018.
  • Washington personal income rose to $471.5 billion in the first quarter from $466.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2018. The reported 4.3 percent growth rate in Washington personal income was the 15th largest among the states and District of Columbia and exceeded the 3.4 percent growth rate for the U.S. as a whole.

Local:

  • Seattle area home prices increased in July but were down over the year. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, seasonally adjusted Seattle area home prices increased 0.5 percent from June to July. Monthly Seattle home prices have, on average, been trending down since June 2018. As of July 2019, Seattle home prices were down 0.7 percent over the year.
  • Seattle area consumer price inflation continued to outpace the national average in August. From August 2018 to August 2019, the Seattle CPI rose 3.2 percent compared to the 1.8 percent increase in the U.S. City Average.

The Governor will use the November forecast revenue estimates when crafting his proposed 2020 supplemental operating budget, which will amend the enacted 2019-21 biennial budget.

Stay tuned to the OPBlog for updates on revenue forecasts and the upcoming 2020 legislative session!

June Revenue Forecast Growth Driven by Legislative Activity

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The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released their June revenue forecast. The projected Near General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue forecast for the 2017-19 biennium decreased by $47 million. Projected revenue collections for the 2019-21 biennium increased by $432 million. This change was primarily driven by legislative activity in the 2019 session. The report projects similar growth to the March revenue forecast.

Here is a quick summary of the total projected Near GF-S revenue for each biennium:

  • $46.059 billion for the 2017-19 biennium, 17.9 percent more than the 2015-17 biennium
  • $50.988 billion for the 2019-21 biennium, 10.7 percent more than the 2017-19 biennium
  • $55.036 billion for the 2021-23 biennium, 7.9 percent more than the 2019-21 biennium

Some context behind the numbers:

  • Revenue has been coming in close to the March 2019 forecast. Cumulative major GF-S revenue collections from March 11 through June 10, 2019 were only 0.5 percent ($30 million) higher than expected.
  • Washington’s unemployment rate remained at 4.7 percent in May after increasing in March and April. The reason for the increase in recent months is that although employment has continued to grow, the labor force has grown faster.
  • Legislative changes accounted for significant adjustments to the previous forecast. This included:
    • An $85 million transfer of property tax into the Education Legacy Trust Account (ELTA), which decreased the forecasted GF-S revenue for the 2017-19 biennium by $87 million. The legislated transfer of additional real estate excise taxes (REET) revenue from new graduated rates plus other small changes added $220 million to forecasted ELTA revenue in the 2019-21 biennium and $327 million in the 2021-23 biennium.
    • An increase in REET receipts due to the adoption of graduated tax rates. The total increase in GF-S revenue from legislative and budget-driven changes is $109 million in the 2019-21 biennium and $282 million in the 2021-23 biennium.
  • Absent these legislative changes, forecasted revenue for the 2019-21 and 2021- 23 biennia would have increased slightly due to positive changes in the economic forecast. Most of the increases stemmed from Revenue Act taxes and REET. These economic changes increased forecasted revenue by $86 million in the 2019-21 biennium and $64 million in the 2021-23 biennium.

Stay tuned to the OPBlog for updates on revenue forecasts!

Legislature Passes 2019-21 Biennial Operating and Capital Budgets

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On Sunday, April 28, leadership in the legislature reached a compromise on the state’s 2019-21 biennial operating and capital budgets. The Governor is expected to approve these budgets, but has line-item veto power. As part of the compromise budget package, the legislature passed HB 2158, which creates a dedicated source of funding for higher education through an increase to Business and Occupation (B&O) taxes on professional services.

For a detailed analysis and comparison of the proposals, see OPB’s newest brief on this page.

The outcomes of the state operating budget will be incorporated into the UW’s Fiscal Year 2020 (FY20) operating budget, which will be presented to the Board of Regents as an information item in May and as an action item in June.

Operating Budget

Some noteworthy items in the final operating budget include:

  • Competitive Compensation and Foundational Support: The UW’s highest operating budget priority for the 2019 legislative session was funding to provide competitive compensation to recruit and retain valued faculty and staff. HB 2158 provides $25 million over the biennium in “foundational support” to increase the share of state funding for new compensation and central services in 2019-21. The amounts are also sufficient to make permanent the one-time compensation funding provided last year.
  • STEM Enrollments: HB 2158 also includes funding for STEM investments at the UW, including increasing high-demand enrollments across all three campuses and maintaining the Washington State Academic RedShirt (STARS) program.
  • Financial Aid: The compromise budget package will increase funding for the State Need Grant, which was re-named the “Washington College Grant” under HB 2158. The new funding will reduce the program’s current waitlist by one-third in FY20 and will fully eliminate the waitlist in FY21. Starting in FY21, the program’s income eligibility threshold will be expanded to include students with a household income of up to 100 percent of the state’s median family income.
  • UW Hospitals and the School of Dentistry: The compromise budget includes additional funding to UW Medical Center, Harborview Medical Center, and the School of Dentistry to support their role in providing safety-net care for the state. The budget also provides B&O tax parity for Harborview.

Capital Budget

The compromise capital budget appropriates $167.7 million in new state funding, $94.3 million from the UW Building Account, and $1.8 million from the Model Toxics Control Account. The final capital budget provides significant new state funding for capital projects seeking to advance state and University priorities, including STEM, behavioral and mental health, and health sciences education.

Overall, the final budget fully funds multiple UW requests and provides a substantial amount of new funding for key projects that will benefit both the UW and Washington state as a whole.

Stay tuned to the OPBlog for more updates!

 

House and Senate Proposed 2019-21 Biennial Operating and Capital Budgets

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Last week, leadership in the House and Senate released their 2019-21 state biennial operating and capital budget proposals.

The House Appropriations committee released their initial operating and capital budget proposals on March 25. The Senate Ways & Means committee released their capital budget proposal on March 27 and their operating budget proposal on March 29. As a reminder, Governor Jay Inslee released his proposals in December.

For a detailed analysis and comparison of the proposals, see OPB’s newest brief on this page.

Operating Budget

Some noteworthy items in the operating budget proposals include:

  • Competitive Compensation and Foundational Support: The UW’s highest operating budget priority for the 2019 legislative session is funding to provide competitive compensation to recruit and retain valued faculty and staff. Importantly, all budget proposals released thus far include funding to improve the UW’s share of state support for these critical new expenses. The Governor’s proposal and the original proposal from the Senate would provide sufficient funding to make permanent the temporary funding provided in the current biennium to increase the share of state support and, generally, those proposals get the closest to what is needed for this purpose in the upcoming biennium.
  • STEM Enrollments: The House operating budget would make significant investments in STEM enrollments, which would be funded by increasing Business & Occupation (B&O) taxes through House Bill 2158.
  • UW Medicine and the School of Dentistry: The House budget would make targeted investments supporting UW Hospitals and the School of Dentistry.
  • Financial Aid: All three proposals make significant strides towards fulfilling the 2018 legislature’s commitment to fully fund the State Need Grant.

The House and Senate operating budget proposals assume revenue projections provided in the March revenue forecast from the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council. All three operating budget proposals rely on significant new revenue from these forecasts as well as new revenue proposals. This includes increasing B&O taxes on professional services, instituting capital gains taxes, and/or increasing real estate excise taxes.

Capital Budget

The House’s capital budget would appropriate almost $167.7 million in new state funding for capital projects, along with $94.3 million from the UW Building Account and $1 million from the State Toxics Control Account. The Senate’s capital budget would appropriate almost $135 million in new state funding, $92.3 million from the UW Building Account, $1.8 million from the Model Toxics Control Account, and $1 million from the Community Behavioral Health Account. Governor Inslee’s capital budget proposed $72 million, $88.3 million, and $1 million, respectively.

Overall, the House and Senate proposals would fully fund multiple UW requests, but differ in their proposed funding mechanisms, amounts, and priorities. Both budgets would over-utilize the UW Building Account while providing significant new investments through state funds.

Stay tuned to the OPBlog for more updates as the proposed budgets move forward.

 

Note: The information in this post and the brief cover legislative versions as of April 1. For operating budget proposals, this means the House proposal after committee and floor amendments and the Senate proposal as originally proposed by the Senate Ways & Means chair. For capital budget proposals, the brief covers the House proposal with committee amendments and the Senate proposal as originally proposed by the Senate Ways & Means chair. Changes to the brief to reflect committee and floor changes in the Senate will be forthcoming.

March Revenue Forecast Shows Consistent Growth

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The Washington Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released their March revenue forecast on March 20. The projected Near General Fund-State (NGF-S) revenue forecast for the current 2017-19 biennium increased by $307 million, while the projected revenue collections for the upcoming 2019-21 biennium increased by $553.5 million. The report shows a similar forecast as that published in November.

Here is a quick summary of the total projected Near GF-S revenue for each biennium:

  • $46.106 billion for the 2017-19 biennium, 18.1 percent more than the 2015-17 biennium
  • $50.555 billion for the 2019-21 biennium, 9.6 percent more than the 2017-19 biennium
  • $54.358 billion for the 2021-23 biennium, 7.5 percent more than the 2019-21 biennium

A bit more context about these numbers:

  • Cumulative major GF-S revenue collections were 3.7 percent higher than forecasted in November. Nearly one third of this extra revenue can be attributed to non-economic factors including one-time large payments and early payment of taxes. Accounting for these factors, collections were about 2.6 percent higher than forecasted in November, and are primarily due to stronger-than-expected taxable activity.
  • Washington’s February unemployment rate has maintained consistent at 4.5 percent, unchanged from recent months but higher than in the November forecast.
  • Personal income decreased slightly compared to the November forecast. Despite this, WA personal income growth has outpaced the county in 26 of the last 35 quarters.
  • Cumulative real estate excise taxes (REET) accounted for 11.2 percent of GF-S collections. Revenue associated with the sales of large commercial properties was significantly above forecasted levels.
  • Major threats to the U.S. and Washington economies remain, including international trade concerns, geopolitical risks, and a maturing economic expansion.

The forecast points out that lawmakers have already taken steps to increase revenue in the current legislative session. Substitute Senate Bill 5581, which Governor Inslee signed on March 14, will facilitate the collection of state taxes on online sales by out-of-state vendors and is estimated to increase GF-S revenue by $115 million in the 2019-2021 biennium and $190 million in the 2021-23 biennium.

Budget writers in the Senate and House will use this updated forecast of projected 2019-21 revenues as a baseline for their budget proposals. We look forward to reviewing these proposals as soon as next week! Stay tuned to the OPBlog for updates on the legislative session and state budget proposals.

Governor Inslee’s Proposed 2019-21 Biennial Operating and Capital Budgets

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On Thursday, Governor Jay Inslee released his proposed 2019-21 biennial operating and capital budgets. For a detailed analysis and summary of the Governor’s proposals, please see OPB’s brief on this page.

The Governor’s operating budget assumes significant new revenue from the creation of a capital gains tax, increasing the business and occupation tax rate for professional services, and modifying the real estate excise tax.

His proposed biennial operating budget would significantly increase appropriations to higher education institutions and student financial aid. The Governor’s budgets also invest heavily in the state’s behavioral health system—including planning a partnership with UW’s health science schools to expand the workforce and clinical care through telemedicine and new clinical facilities, recovery efforts for Southern Resident Killer Whales, and steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The release of the Governor’s budget proposals represents the first step in a lengthy budget process. Lawmakers in the Senate and the House will have the opportunity to release their own budget proposals over the course of the 2019 legislative session – set to begin on Monday, January 14, 2019.

For more information regarding the UW’s current requests for state funding, please see OPB’s 2019-21 operating and capital request submissions on the State Budget Information page.

Stay tuned to the OPBlog for updates during the 2019 legislative session!