News and Updates

While people often focus on the state revenue forecast, the caseload forecast is also a critical piece of the budget picture.  Caseload forecasters predict everything from how many kids will show up at school in the fall to how many people will need state medical assistance.  Today’s update shows increased caseload costs over the new biennium of $250 million from the prior forecast in March.  Officials are hoping to manage the cost increases using a number of spending restrictions issued by Gov. Gregoire last month.  Here’s a story on the caseload forecast from Brad Shannon in The Olympian.

The Office of Financial Management (OFM) has released its annual population estimate and it shows a slowing growth rate.  Chief demographer Theresa Lowe pegs the state population at 6,668,020, with the growth rate slowing to 1.2% per year (down from the 2006 high of 1.9%).  As with everything else these days, the economy is the main reason:

“The continued housing contraction nationwide and poor economic conditions appear to be limiting the mobility of the population usually influenced by labor market opportunities,” Lowe said. “Many job seekers are finding it difficult to sell their homes or to relocate to accept employment at the price of paying two mortgages for an extended period.”

Basic market forces throughout the United States have also reduced immigration, and have resulted in many resident and situational immigrants returning home. Washington has relatively large Hispanic and Asian populations, ranking seventh among the states in the number of Asians and 13th in the number of Hispanic/Latinos. The large in and out flows associated with these populations are affected by present economic conditions, another factor resulting in the slowdown of state growth.

The annual population determinations by OFM are based on actual change in school enrollment, housing, voters, driver’s licenses and other indicator data, and are used to distribute revenues to local governments for public services and transportation. These annual figures are also used to develop and validate population forecasts, which help to anticipate changes in population-driven budget expenditures.

You can read more about the OFM report here.

Adam Wilson of the Olympian is leaving to become Gov. Gregoire’s speechwriter.  He covered state government for the paper, along with political editor Brad Shannon who is remaining.  The paper says it will replace Wilson, but since last year the number of reporters covering the statehouse has been cut by about half.  You can read more about Wilson’s departure here.

The Seattle Times has a story about a new program that could help some students better manage student loan payments.  There are limitations and the program is not for everyone, but according to the article:

The Income Based Repayment program allows graduates to pay no more than 15 percent of their income toward monthly loan repayments. Those with moderate or low incomes will be required to pay much less than 15 percent, and in some cases, nothing at all — at least initially. The program will be particularly helpful to new graduates who have big loans and are entering a tough job market.

The program encompasses federal loans that account for about two-thirds of all student debt. Private loans taken out by students and federal loans taken out by parents do not qualify. If people are already in default on their loans, they won’t qualify for the program, either.

Kay Lewis, director of student financial aid at the University of Washington, said she plans to send a mass e-mail to the 4,100 students who graduated from the UW this year to let them know about the program. She said about half of those students left with loans.

You can read the entire article here.

Welcome —

Unless this is your first time here, you can see that we have updated the State Relations page to make it easier for you to find the information you want (and to make it more consistent with many other UW websites).  Most importantly, the Capitol Record blog has been moved front and center — no more having to click to find it.  We will continue to post news updates from Olympia, along with important information on higher education issues around the nation. 

We have maintained all of the key links from the old site (along with a few new ones) and we will continue to post documents and other resources that provide context for the stories we cover in the blog.  We hope you find the new design more useful and welcome your suggestions on how we can keep you better informed.   Thanks for reading!

Next Monday you will see a new look for the Capitol Update blog. We are changing the design to be consistent with other UW sites, and to provide readers with easier access to the information they want. Rather than have to click through to the blog, it will be front and center on the main page. You will still have access to all of the quick links and resources from the old site as well. If you have our blog bookmarked (and we certainly hope you do), you will be automatically forwarded to the new site.

An article in Maine’s Kennebec Journal has a familiar ring to those who followed recent state budget debates here and around the nation. According to the article:

A critical component of Maine’s long-term economic recovery is investment in higher education. But that’s not where the state has put its money in recent years, a former Maine state economist said Thursday.

Investment in Maine’s colleges and universities is “the most critical thing we can do for the future of our state,” said Laurie Lachance, now president and chief executive officer of the Maine Development Foundation.

But that investment has dropped off during the past few decades as a percentage of state spending, Lachance told Augusta Kiwanis Club members.

In 1968, she said, 18 percent of the state General Fund supported higher education. In 2007, it was down to 9 percent.

People with higher education levels are less likely to be unemployed and are more likely to have high incomes, Lachance said.

You can find the complete story here.

Remember when President Bush had to duck to avoid a shoe thrown by an angry Iraqi journalist? (If not — here’s a You Tube refresher). At the same time, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Malaki didn’t flinch at all. Why the difference? Turns out that in the split second the shoe was in the air, the President’s brain calculated it as a threat, while the Prime Minister’s brain realized the shoe was not aimed at him, and the two men reacted accordingly.

UW neuroscientists believe we have a “dual vision” system that allows our brain to instantly determine the trajectory of an object, whether it poses peril, and take decisive action — all in a flash. This is the same system that explains how baseball hitters know when to bail out of the batter’s box and when to hang in, even when a pitch is far inside. It all happens in a fraction of a second — faster than the eyes and conscious mind can process.

UW researchers are using the data to better our understanding of how humans process an overwhelming amount of sensory information — and how our brains react — even before a conscious thought is formed — to protect us from harm.

You can read more about the UW research here — perhaps during a sunny afternoon taking in a game at Safeco Field.

Congratulations to the Husky men’s crew for bringing the Intercollegiate Rowing Association national championship home for the purple and gold. The crew overtook Cal with a furious final 500 meters in the varsity eight race, and came home with four gold medals as well as the team title.

Governor Gregoire added her praise as well —

“I congratulate Coach Michael Callahan and the Husky Men’s Crew team for winning their third straight national championship. To compete in such a grueling sport takes determination, perseverance and a lot of heart. Their come-from-behind victory makes this championship even more memorable. This team has so much to be proud of – a strong work ethic, a history of success and the makings of a talented team for years to come. I am incredibly proud of these student athletes, and congratulate them on their outstanding achievement!”

Well done!

A recent study by the American Enterprise Institute (with funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation — “Diplomas and Dropouts” shows the UW’s six-year graduation rate at 75%, well ahead of the state average of 59%. You can read a good story on the study in the Seattle Times. According to the article, researchers tracking graduation rates say better data is needed:

Hilary Pennington, the director of postsecondary success and special initiatives at the Gates Foundation, said federal data sets in higher education are inadequate and need to start accounting for part-time and transfer students.

That said, the report does show you can have similar institutions with “really incredibly different outcomes,” Pennington said.

“We are very interested in the obvious next question: What is it that the good ones are doing, and the poor-performing ones are not doing?” she said.

For Washington public universities, a key question is how budget cuts — which are likely to reduce course options — may make it harder for students to finish their degrees. Expect this issues to gain a higher profile in coming years.