Speaking to the Association of Washington Business in Spokane, the state’s chief economic forecaster, Dr. Arun Raha, said he saw the recession ending in the third quarter of this year, with the economy “gaining traction” in the middle of 2010. We have learned to be wary of predictions, but Dr. Raha’s timeline would be welcome news to everyone, especially budget-writers who are already worrying about the next two-year cycle. You can read more details on Dr. Raha’s speech here.
News & Updates
So what does it all add up to?
Now that the Governor has signed the operating budget (earlier she signed the capital and transportation budgets), just how much do all of the budgets total? You can find the answer ($69.5 billion) along with a fascinating analysis here. Joe Turner of The News Tribune breaks down how lawmakers plugged holes in the budget, noting that more challenges lie ahead:
Only about half of the $9 billion gap between spending and revenue is being closed by spending cuts. The other half is being plugged by one-time-only money – the $3 billion in federal stimulus funding, the $777 million from money that ordinarily would be used to build water and sewer systems and public school buildings and $700 million from savings.
What happens if the economy does not recover in two to three years?
“We know that 2011-13 will present some significant challenges,” Victor Moore, the governor’s budget director said Monday. “It’s a matter of degrees, of how fast and how well the economy rebounds. I’m gonna need $4 billion in real revenue growth.”
States can’t assume President Barack Obama and Congress will step up with another stimulus package, as they did earlier this year, he said.
The whole article provides some good perspective on what just happened and what budget-writers will be watching in upcoming months.
New budget presentation available
Our office of Planning and Budgeting has put together a detailed and informative presentation on the recently adopted operating and capital budgets, how they will affect the University, and the challenges we are facing. It details the shrinking role of state appropriations in funding, how we compare with the global challenge states, how financial aid is being increased to mitigate tuition increases, and the level of permanent cuts that are being taken in various units across campus.
For those wanting a comprehensive, yet clear summary of our budget situation, you can download the entire presentation here.
UW alumni Pepple named AG’s chief of staff
Congratulations to 1984 UW alumni Randy Pepple who has been named the new chief of staff for Attorney General Rob McKenna. Most recently Pepple headed Pepple Communications and in the late 1990s he was chief of staff for former Congressman Rick White. We look forward to working with him in his new position.
Budget signing set for Tuesday
The Governor’s office has announced she will sign the 2009 operating budget Tuesday afternoon. That is the final day of the 20 day period she has to sign bills after the legislature adjourns, and it brings to conclusion the most difficult legislative session, at least from a budget perspective, in three decades. The previous day the Governor is scheduled to sign HB 2344 which allows undergraduate tuition to increase above the previous 7% cap; she has already signed the transportation and capital budgets.
President Emmert on new Aerospace Council
Governor Gregoire has issued an executive order creating a Council on Aerospace and UW President Mark Emmert has been named one of the Council members. The Council has been directed by the Governor to:
Coordinate and organize the worker-training programs at Washington’s community and technical colleges;
Coordinate the research and development programs at the research universities;
Integrate technologies developed at the research institutions into the training programs;
Manage recruiting and retention of aerospace companies to create jobs and grow the industry; and
Provide advice to the Legislature and to the governor on how Washington can improve its attractiveness to the aerospace industry.
Two more bills on Governor’s schedule
Two more bills of interest are scheduled for action on Tuesday and Wednesday. SB 5172, scheduled for Tuesday, would create a Center for Human Rights at the UW. According to the official bill report:
The mission of the center is to expand opportunities for Washington residents to receive a world-class education in human rights, generate research data and expert knowledge to enhance public and private policymaking, and become an academic center for human rights teaching and research in the nation.
The program would build off the human rights program already offered by the UW.
On Wednesday, the Governor is scheduled to take action on HB 2211, which would allow “early tolling” on the 520 bridge as part of developing a replacement plan. Tolls would be set by the Washington State Transportation Commission, and an extensive process for developing the replacement plan is set out in the bill.
Finally, for those who wonder what a bill signing looks like, we have photographic evidence, taken at the signing ceremony for HB 1640 (protecting private investment information) last week. (From left to right behind the Governor — Randy Hodgins, Scott Davies, Doug Breckel, prime sponsor Rep. Lynn Kessler, and Mike Woodin)
GET unit price rises to $101
Washington’s Guaranteed Education Tuition (GET) plan has announced the price for a unit will be $101 (up from last year’s $76). The state guarantees that 100 units will purchase one year of tuition and state-mandated fees at the UW or WSU. Sunday’s SeattlePI.com had a good story previewing the reasons behind the increase and the financial issues facing the GET program.
Article on cost of school reform
Several papers this morning featured an Associated Press article on what it could cost to implement the school reform bill passed by lawmakers this year. According to the article:
While state lawmakers were debating plans to reform the state’s education system, no one wanted to talk about how much the changes would cost and where the money would come from. They’re talking now.Sen. Fred Jarrett, D-Mercer Island, a leader of the Basic Education Finance Task Force that designed the reforms, says the state will need $3 billion to $4 billion more a year to pay for the new definition of basic education. Estimates during the session seldom went above $2 billion a year.
The reform plan would create smaller classes, full-day kindergarten and a longer high school day to give students a chance to meet higher credit requirements. It would also distribute state education dollars based on a new formula and it would tie some teacher pay to student performance and set up a standardized way to assess a teacher’s skills in the classroom.
Observers have noted that to fully implement the plan could take most, if not all, of any new state financial resources over the next decade. Everyone with a stake in how the state educates its children (and allocates its resources) needs to pay attention to how the reform plan progresses. The article is a great place to start.
Two more higher ed. bills on Governor’s schedule
The Governor’s bill action schedule for Thursday has two more bills of interest to the UW. One is our request bill (HB 1640) which protects private investment information submitted to our endowment. The other is HB 1946 which charters a workgroup and sets a policy direction toward common online learning technologies at four-year schools and community and technical colleges.
You can find the Governor’s bill action webpage here.
(For those who are curious about the terminology — the process is formally referred to as “bill action” rather than “bill signing” because on rare occasions there is a full or partial veto.)